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Strategic Business Plan
NLS: That All May Read
Current Strategic Business Plan for the Implementation of Digital Systems
September 2006
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Executive Summary <>
Section 1: Introduction <>
Section 2: Completed and Ongoing Digital System <> Implementation
Activities
Section 3: Current and Future Costs and <> Transition Plans
Appendices <>
Executive Summary
This document presents an updated strategic business plan for the
implementation of a digitally-based recorded talking book system for the
free national library program operated by the National Library Service for
the Blind and Physically Handicapped (NLS), a component of the Library of
Congress (LC); the nationwide network of cooperating regional and local
libraries; and the U.S. Postal Service. While analog audio cassette book
(RC) and cassette book machine (CBM) technology, the backbone of the current
system, has facilitated a reliable and cost-efficient delivery system for
books since the 1970s and for magazines since the 1990s, it is now outdated
and nearing the end of its useful life. Because many NLS patrons are ware of
technological advances, they have heightened expectations of service
improvements. Further, the impending obsolescence of key elements of RC and
CBM technology also warrants the conversion of the system to an appropriate
alternative technology.
For these reasons, NLS has begun to implement digital audio technology as
the backbone of the future system. Patrons, the libraries that provide
direct service to patrons, and NLS, will realize improvements associated
with digital technology. The program will continue to provide RCs and CBMs
to patrons during the transition, but digital talking book (DTB) and digital
talking book machine (DTBM) technology will ultimately replace RC technology
just as RC technology replaced its predecessor, the rigid disc (RD)
technology. The transition to this digital technology is expected to begin
for patrons in fiscal year (FY) 2008 and should require approximately four
years to complete. The implementation plan is presented in this document.
NLS has determined that the digital system will be based on flash memory
technology, specifically Universal Serial Bus (USB) flash drive technology,
and envisions the following advantages (not in hierarchical order) relative
to the current system:
* Flash memory has improved audio reproduction quality, which will
provide better audio quality for patrons.
* Storage densities and capacities are larger and will provide easier
portability for patrons, require that they track fewer cartridges per book,
eliminate the need to turn the cassette over and flip a switch to access the
other side, and require less storage space for collections at network
libraries.
* Flash memory cartridges have a long life and may be reused many
times while retaining high-quality audio reproduction; also, the duplication
process is relatively simple.
* Flash memory is a widely available, mature technology whose price is
declining rapidly. This will make its use cost-effective by the time future
operations commence.
* Playback machines will be smaller and weigh less, ensuring better
portability and requiring less storage space in network libraries.
* Machines will consume less power because they will have no moving
parts, thus enabling longer operation for a given battery capacity.
* Machines will be more reliable, resulting in fewer malfunctions for
patrons and fewer repairs by staff, volunteers, and contractors.
* Fewer, simpler repairs will mean lower cost and less storage needed
for repair parts.
* Machines will last longer, since they are far more robust and
resistant to damage.
* Machines will be less expensive, enabling the savings to be
redirected to other facets of the program.
While the new system will obviously improve the services provided to
patrons, it will also be cost-efficient for both network libraries and NLS.
While the costs of book production and distribution may be slightly higher
than they are for the current system, the costs to produce and repair
playback machines will be lower and will more than compensate for the higher
production and distribution costs. NLS should incur annual book and machine
costs that are significantly lower than those of the current system. Network
libraries, as well, should enjoy substantial savings because of such factors
as reduced storage space requirements and improved cost efficiencies in book
and machine maintenance.
NLS has already submitted a request to the LC for supplemental funding for
the large capital investments needed to implement the new system in a
reasonable amount of time. After DTBMs have largely replaced CBMs and
inventories of reusable flash drive cartridges have been accumulated for
both mass duplication and possible future duplication-on-demand operations,
NLS's normal annual funding ($53,904,510 for FY 2007) will suffice for
continuing operations of the new system.
Two funding scenarios have been considered and evaluated, and the associated
transition plans have been developed. They are as follows:
* Plan 1, in which supplemental funding is received and all patrons
who want DTBMs will have them by the end of FY 2012. This plan would require
about $76.4 million in supplemental funding, which would be spent from FY
2008 to FY 2011 at rate of $19.1 million per year. Most likely, no shortages
of CBMs would occur at any time in the transition, and operations would go
smoothly.
* Plan 2, in which no supplemental funding is received and
implementation of the new system would have to be accomplished with current
funding only. In this plan, the transition to digital will not be
accomplished until after FY 2017, when about 83,000 people who want DTBMs
would still not have them. Actual shortages of CBMs would occur in FY 2011
through FY 2012, and operations would be difficult in FY 2010 and FY 2012.
Commercial repairs of CBMs would have to continue through FY 2014 rather
than FY 2011, as in Plan 1.
NLS is concerned about the prolonged transition described in Plan 2. The
reasons are as follows:
* Insufficient CBM inventory. While the program currently has a
storage inventory of CBMs, a shortage could develop if it becomes necessary
to extend the cassette program during a prolonged transition.
* Inability to obtain CBM repair parts. As cassette playback machine
technology becomes obsolete, obtaining repair parts for CBMs will become
more difficult.
* Inability to obtain RC components. Another serious concern is the
potential inability to obtain components for RC production. The technology
is becoming obsolete, worldwide demand for products using the technology
continues to decline substantially, firms continue to exit the industry as
demand declines, competition becomes more intense, and profitability
decreases, thus resulting in fewer sources of supply and higher costs for
buyers. The greatest concern is for the availability and price of cassette
tape, followed by shells and replacement parts for duplication equipment.
* Decline of volunteer repair capacity. Both demographic and
structural changes in the telecommunications industry are resulting in an
impending decline in the number of machine repairs that can be performed by
volunteers due to a decline in the volunteer base. A prolonged transition
would mean having volunteers perform the bulk of CBM repairs for a longer
period; however, the decline in volunteer repair capacity would result in an
increase in the number of CBMs needing repairs and/or the need to use
commercial CBM repairers.
* Higher costs for maintaining dual systems. Relatively more
resources, including labor, equipment, and supplies, are required for
storing and circulating multiple types of media and playback machines than
for a single type or fewer types. It will be more expensive to produce books
in both RC and DTB formats because mass-duplicators' unit costs and charges
for job set-ups will be higher for smaller quantities.
* Negative public relations. Many patrons will be wondering why the
transition is taking so long. Some patrons already have heightened
expectations for digital technology, either because they use digital audio
or other devices, or simply because they are aware of the potential service
improvements. NLS wishes to eliminate, or at least minimize, any negative
feelings associated with a prolonged transition.
Accomplishments
The overall implementation is currently on schedule, and there have been
many tangible accomplishments since the Current Strategic Business Plan for
the Implementation of Digital Systems was published in December 2003. These
accomplishments are as follows:
* A survey assessed current patrons' characteristics, desires, and
requirements, and these are being incorporated into the design and
development of virtually all aspects of the new system. Key findings were
that features such as large-print and braille labeling on books and
magazines, as well as raised symbols on playback machine keys, will be
required; also, the machines should be smaller and lighter, have better
audio reproduction quality, and enable readers to find their place if they
fall asleep.
* The development of the DTB title collection is continuing, with a
goal of having approximately 20,000 book titles in DTB format by FY 2008.
This collection is being developed by converting 10,000 existing (RC) titles
to digital format and providing 10,000 new digital masters in the normal
book development process-approximately 2,000 per year-an increasing number
of which will be available as DTBs.
* The study that chose USB flash drive technology to be the basis of
the digital system also examined technologies based on miniature magnetic
hard drives and CD-ROM. The decision criteria included patron service
quality levels, NLS costs, and network costs. A full discussion of the
technology selection process is included in the 2003 Strategic Business
Plan, pp. 8-11.
* A digital rights management (DRM) scheme was developed to provide
copyright protection of program materials. NLS has decided to use the
National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Advanced Encryption
Standard as the basis for the DRM. The scheme calls for a decryption key to
be built into NLS DTBMs and to facilitate the reading of non-NLS materials
by enabling decryption keys for non NLS flash-drive-based books loaded into
NLS DTBMs.
* A study was performed to select the audio compression algorithm, or
codec (code-decode) scheme, for DTBs. A comprehensive testing process using
expert listeners was performed for competing alternatives. The algorithm
selected was the Adaptive Multi-Rate Wide band Plus (AMR-WB+), which
produces the best audio reproduction by exploiting the characteristics of
human speech and achieves the highest compression ratios.
* The process to be used for DTB preparation has been largely
developed and will include five steps: (1) development of a digital
narration master in WAY format; (2) addition of announcements and XML
(extensible markup language) files to the raw audio file; (3) compression of
the raw audio and XML files using the AMR-WB+ codec; (4) DRM or protection
of the compressed files using the NIST Advanced Encryption Standard with the
NLS encryption key; and (5) creation of an image file of the protected book
to maximize the speed with which data can be copied.
* Pilot tests of Internet-based magazine downloads have been
completed, and similar tests for books are under way. Three magazines are
currently offered, with more planned. The format will shortly be changed to
AMR-WB+. Playback software capable of handling the new system is being
developed and issued to participants.
* A comprehensive Playback Machine Transition Study has addressed the
phasing out of CBMs and the phasing in of DTBMs. The multiyear computer
planning model that was developed determined that C I (the most common CBM)
production should be discontinued after FY 2006, assuming that the
recommended baseline plan for DTBM production (Plan I) is implemented. The
study recommended that commercial CBM repair capacity and performance be
increased as soon as possible to a level of 12,000 per year until no longer
necessary. It further concluded that an alternative, less expensive CBM
should not be developed and that the DTBM should carry a manufacturer's
warranty of some type.
* The project to design the DTB machine, cartridge, and container and
to develop concepts for duplication equipment is under way, and functional
prototypes of all three have been developed. Patron input was obtained via
focus groups, and the results of the survey are being incorporated into the
design. Product development is in the design refinement and engineering
integration phase. Priorities are that the DTBM be lighter, smaller, easier
to clean, more reliable, and more maintainable than the CBM, as well as last
longer and use less power. Both an advanced and a basic model of the DTBM
are being developed; most machines will be the basic model. The primary
design criteria are ergonomic considerations from the perspective of patron
usage, the ability to label the cartridge in both print and braille, and
durability. The goal is to have preproduction prototypes and specifications
available by early 2007.
* A comprehensive study is being conducted to design and develop the
best distribution system. The first phase, which involved the development of
a planning model, the formulation and evaluation of several alternatives
considering both economic and non-economic factors, and the selection of the
best implementation system, has been completed.
* NLS is continuing a presolicitation process for the manufacture of
the DTB machine, cartridge, and container. The purpose is to begin the
procurement process and to solicit from potential suppliers feedback on
manufacturability from both technical and economic perspectives before the
design phase is complete. While the machine, cartridge, and container are
being designed first to maximize utility to patrons and second to maximize
operational efficiency for NLS and network libraries, it must also be
possible to mass-produce them with existing manufacturing technology and at
a cost that can be supported.
Current and Future Activity
NLS's fundamental transition strategy is to await further declines in the
wholesale unit price of flash memory that will make implementation
economically feasible, but also to execute all other necessary planning and
implementation steps that can be logically performed before FY 2008. The
major steps comprising the current transition plan are as follows:
* Development of the digital book title master collection. The goal is
to have approximately 20,000 titles in digital format by FY 2008. This is a
continuing operation aimed at producing about 2,000 new titles per year and
converting selected existing titles from analog to digital format.
* Pilot test of Internet delivery. The magazine pilot tests will
continue, and a pilot test for books will begin in 2006.
* DTBM, cartridge, and container design. The second phase of product
development will continue, with preproduction prototypes and specifications
completed by May 2007 and the products being transitioned to mass production
in early FY 2008.
* Distribution system design and transition planning. The second phase
of the DTB distribution system design project was completed in August 2006,
with a detailed system design, functional specifications for the design, and
a detailed transition plan to facilitate the implementation of the new
delivery system.
* RD phase-out. The removal of RD collections from network libraries
has effectively already begun and should be completed by the end of FY 2007.
Some copies will be disposed of, while others will be transferred to multi
state centers (MSCs). A master file will be retained.
* Library information systems redesign. This will involve the
modification of existing library information systems to support
library-based DTB distribution, as well as DTBM distribution and repair. The
redesign will begin in FY 2007, possibly in two phases, the first to enable
library-based distribution and the second for possible future
duplication-on-demand center-based distribution.
* Library information systems implementation. The installation,
testing, and full implementation of modified library information systems
will begin in FY 2007, with the first phase completed by the beginning of FY
2008.
* DTBM production, allocation, and distribution. The mass production
of DTBMs will begin in FY 2007 with approximately 60,000 machines being
built, allocated to libraries, and loaned to patrons. Production will be
ramped up to the extent that available supplemental funding allows from FY
2008 through FY 2011 and produced at maintenance levels thereafter.
* Flash drive cartridge production. The mass production and purchase
of 256-megabyte flash drive cartridges customized for the NLS program will
begin in FY 2007.
* Container production. The mass production of DTB mailing/storage
containers will begin in FY 2007.
* Mass duplication of DTBs. Mass duplication of DTBs will begin in FY
2007 and continue throughout the transition period and beyond. Duplication
on demand will be further studied and may be implemented in the future.
* Reduction of CBM inventory. The reduction and phase-out of CBMs will
effectively begin in FY 2007 when C 1 production ceases.
* Development of DTBM repair infrastructure. This will begin in FY
2008 and involve the evaluation of repair processes and parts needs as
experience with DTBMs accumulates. Testing and repair procedures will be
developed, parts procurement requirements determined, repairers trained, the
best warranty terms determined, and the repair logistics system put into
place.
* RC mass-production phase-out. The reduction and phase-out of RC mass
production will effectively begin in FY 2008 when DTBs and DTBMs become
available to readers; at that point, production quantities will be reduced,
but all titles will still be produced. Production will cease after FY 2011
or later, depending on the actual transition plan as determined by available
supplemental funding.
* Weeding of RC collections. The reduction in the number of RC copies
in library collections, which also involves reallocation among libraries, is
ongoing and will continue.
* Weeding of DTB collections. The weeding of DTB collections in
network libraries will probably not begin until FY 2013. Weeded copies will
be reallocated among libraries that need them, and the rest will be used for
mass-duplicated DTBs.
Section 1: Introduction
Background
The National Library Service for the Blind and Physically Handicapped (NLS),
which is part of the Library of Congress (LC), operates a free national
library program for people who cannot read or use standard printed materials
because of temporary or permanent visual or physical limitations. NLS
selects, produces, and distributes books and magazines in braille and
recorded formats, and designs and manufactures special playback equipment
for use with the audio materials. In fiscal year (FY) 2005, readership
totaled 793,891-751,569 audio users and 42,322 braille readers. NLS
manufactures 42,000 cassette players annually and has an inventory of
713,893 players, of which 526,984 are assigned to program users.
In FY 2005, NLS produced 3,925 audio and braille book titles, in addition to
circulating 45 recorded and 33 braille magazine titles to subscribers in
3,954,726 copies. The total available collection of recorded and embossed
books exceeds 360,000 titles.
NLS distributes both the reading materials and the playback machines to a
national network of 132 cooperating regional and local libraries, which in
turn store and distribute the books and players to eligible borrowers. In FY
2005, a total of 23,472,396 audio and braille materials (books and
magazines) were circulated. Reading materials and playback equipment are
sent to borrowers and returned to libraries postage-free through the U.S.
Postal Service (USPS); costs are covered by a congressional appropriation.
The enabling legislation for the operation of the free national library
program is contained in Public Law 89-522.
Conversion to a digital system
Cassette book (RC) and cassette book machine (CBM) analog audio technology,
the backbone of the current system, has served as a reliable and
cost-efficient delivery system for books since the 1970s and for magazines
since the 1990s. However, RC and CBM technology is outdated in several
respects and is nearing the end of its useful life in the program. Because
many NLS patrons are aware of technological advances, they have heightened
expectations of improvements in service. Further, the impending obsolescence
of key elements of RC and CBM technology also warrants converting the system
to an appropriate alternative technology.
NLS has therefore begun to implement the use of digital audio technology as
the backbone of the future program. Program patrons, the libraries that
provide these patrons with service, and NLS, will realize improvements
associated with digital technology. The program will continue to provide RCs
and CBMs to patrons during the transition, but digital talking book (DTB)
and digital talking book machine (DTBM) technology will ultimately replace
RC technology just as RC technology replaced its predecessors-rigid disk
(RD) and flexible disk technology.
NLS has identified and documented the fundamental requirements of any future
system based on digital technology, regardless of its specific format and
delivery characteristics. These requirements were developed by the Digital
Long-Term Planning Group (DLTPG), which included NLS and network library
staff, Chief Officers of State Library Agencies, and representatives of
consumer advocacy groups. Appendix 2, a comprehensive summary of the
requirements for any future digital system, has effectively served as a
guide for implementing the digital delivery system.
Patrons' transition to digital technology is expected to begin in FY 2008
and should require about four years to complete. The plan for implementing
this system is the subject of this document.
Scope of the Document
This document presents the first revised and updated strategic business plan
for implementing digital systems for the free national library program. It
does not constitute the final plan because, as of this writing, there are
still several unknowns that will dictate certain aspects of the
implementation. However, comprehensive planning studies are addressing these
unknowns, and the resulting answers will set the course for the
implementation.
This document has the following objectives:
* to describe the major projects that are ongoing and the major
activities that have been completed since NLS published the baseline Current
Strategic Business Plan for the Implementation of Digital Systems in
December 2003
* to present the estimated costs of future operations
* to describe the major steps that have been planned but not yet
initiated
However, this document does not describe all the major activities completed
and all the important decisions made before December 2003; for these, the
reader is referred to the Current Strategic Business Plan for the
Implementation of Digital Systems.
Section 2: Completed and Ongoing Digital System Implementation Activities
Patron survey
Making the transition to a digital system involves decisions about hardware
design, medium, and distribution systems as well as practical matters such
as the cost, durability, and availability of an appropriate technology.
However, the equipment and delivery systems must also be suited to the
characteristics, desires, and requirements of the users.
The free national library program has always been user-driven. To make
prudent design decisions about the digital system, NLS required more
information about its patrons' abilities and preferences. It therefore
commissioned a patron survey that was completed in January 2004 to help
anticipate and proactively address any problems that users might have with
digital books and playback machines, to identify possible barriers to
acceptance, and to design the new materials to satisfy users' needs. The
results from this study (see appendix 3
<http://www.loc.gov/nls/businessplan/appendix06/appendix3.html> ) have been
incorporated into subsequent planning studies for developing the
digital-based system.
The contractor selected to conduct the survey used a disproportionate
stratified random sampling approach to identify subscribers who belonged to
five groups (ages 18 to 39, 40 to 64, 65 to 84, and 85 and older, and people
whose years of birth were missing in the Comprehensive Mailing List System.
The analysis was based on telephone interviews with a sample of 447
subscribers.
The major survey findings on patron background characteristics and
technology are as follows:
* NLS patrons are diverse in terms of educational attainment and type
of community. The highest grade completed runs the gamut from eleven or
fewer years to graduate school. Patrons are only slightly less likely to be
living in a rural community or small town than in a suburb or city.
* This diversity notwithstanding, the general demographic profile is
quite clear. Subscribers are primarily middle-aged and elderly people with
late-onset serious vision loss and modest economic means.
* Nearly all subscribers use at least one high-tech device, such as a
remote control, that is commonplace in the broader American population. The
use of high-tech adaptive devices, computers, and the Internet is less
widespread but is still significant.
* The use of high-tech devices is more common among younger
subscribers than among older ones. This fact, in turn, suggests that the use
of all types of high-tech devices-and, by extension, interest in the
forthcoming DTBM-is likely to increase over time.
* Current barriers to the use of computers and other high-tech devices
include low income, lack of access by people with disabilities, and-perhaps
most important-generational issues that suggest a lack of exposure, or only
a brief and unsatisfactory exposure, to computers and what they can do.
General findings on patrons' experiences with talking books and talking-book
playback machines in the current system are as follows:
* Across all age groups, NLS is the primary source of playback
equipment, and the NLS playback machine is the one that subscribers use most
often. Similarly, network libraries are the primary source of reading
materials.
* In two respects, older subscribers make up NLS's principal
constituency. First, most subscribers are 65 or older. Second, they-and
especially subscribers who are 85 or older-are the heaviest readers.
* Handling the tapes and manipulating the controls are less likely to
pose a problem than understanding certain aspects of machine operation.
Although the vast majority of subscribers operate the machine themselves,
half received help in learning how to use it.
Finally, several important implications for designing the DTB and DTBM and
preparing subscribers for them can be drawn from the survey findings:
* Subscribers need and use the accessibility features that their
current NLS machine (the CBM) offers. These features include large print and
braille labeling on books and magazine media and raised symbols (on some
keys) and easy-to-manipulate controls on playback machines.
* Leading concerns and the importance subscribers attached to eleven
possible improvements (shown in appendix 3) indicate that the following are
their top priorities for the DTBM: (1) having a smaller and lighter machine,
(2) being able to find one's place after having fallen asleep, and (3)
having better sound quality at normal operating speed than is currently
possible.
There are likely to be some pockets of resistance to the DTBM. Half of the
subscribers interviewed either have no particular concerns about the current
machine or say that they would change nothing about it. Another indicator of
resistance is generational differences in subscribers' exposure to and use
of new technology. For the oldest subscribers, the digital device might be
somewhat intimidating because it is based on an unknown technology.
Given these findings, NLS believes that good communication about what the
DTBM is and how to use it will be critical to fostering acceptance,
especially among subscribers who were born before or during World War II. A
multipronged effort that appeals to three different classes of
patrons-technologically savvy subscribers who are already interested in
features like bookmarks and navigational aids, subscribers who like their
machine just the way it is but would be amenable to using the new one, and
subscribers who are likely to actively resist DTBs and DTBMs, including
those who are inclined to be suspicious or fearful of technology-is likely
to be required.
Production of DTB titles
Very shortly after the DTB standard (American National Standards
Institutes/National Information Standards Organization Z39.86-2002) was
established in 2002, NLS began developing a DTB title master collection.
Because the development of a digital title master collection did not depend
on the audio medium or the delivery method, NLS was able to begin the work
even though neither had been selected.
NLS has established as a goal having 20,000 DTB titles ready for
distribution in FY 2008. These titles are being developed from two sources:
titles produced directly in digital format and other titles that were
produced originally in analog format and are being converted.
Since the beginning of FY 2004, all new titles have been produced in digital
format and will continue to be produced that way. Approximately 10,000 new
titles have been, are being, or will be produced in digital format between
FY 2004 and FY 2008. Also, during FY 2002 and FY 2003, approximately 10
percent and 50 percent of titles, respectively, were produced in digital
format.
Some 10,000 existing titles in analog format, all of which were produced
before FY 2004, will undergo analog-to-digital conversion. These titles
constitute a diverse cross-section of the entire analog collection and are
not simply the most popular titles. During FY 2004 and FY 2005,
respectively, 2,961 and 1,592 titles were converted from analog to digital
format. Between FY 2006 and FY 2008, some 1,550 to 1,600 titles per year
will be converted. Although this process is proceeding well on the technical
end, it is turning out to be more expensive than anticipated; for this
reason, annual title conversions are below the originally targeted 3,300
titles per year.
>From 2008 to 2011, NLS envisions continuing to produce approximately 2,000
new titles annually (see appendix
<http://www.loc.gov/nls/businessplan/appendix06/BizPlan2006App5.pdf> 5). As
the transition from analog to digital progresses during these four years,
the number of copies produced in each medium will vary, with copies of
cassette titles declining as the number of copies of DTBs increases. While
NLS also intends to convert additional existing analog titles to digital
format (beyond the 10,000 now targeted for conversion), the extent of such
conversions is not known. It is possible that additional existing analog
titles will be converted on an as-needed, title-by-title basis as demand
dictates. It is also possible that ranges of existing titles may be
converted.
Selection of flash memory as a medium
In February 2005, NLS completed research on three alternative digital media
carriers for the first DTB delivery system: flash memory, CD-ROM, and the
miniature hard drive. The most important characteristics of the new medium
are that it must be as easy to use, as durable, and as simple to duplicate
as the cassette. Ideally, it should also hold more audio than a cassette and
be reusable, and the cost should be reasonable. NLS therefore evaluated
these characteristics for the three candidate media.
While CD-ROM is an excellent carrier of all kinds of digital information,
including DTBs, and is inexpensive and easily duplicated, braille labeling
of CDs is extremely difficult and the machines required to play them include
fragile electromechanical parts. The loading process either exposes some of
the most fragile parts or uses a slot-loading mechanism that would be far
too prone to break down. Moreover, the machines are not easily repaired and
because of their moving parts, have greater battery requirements than
solid-state systems based on flash memory. Perhaps the biggest problem with
CD-ROM is that it does not lend itself to repeated circulation because discs
are very easily rendered unusable by handling, especially by people with
limited dexterity. While one-way library systems based on CD-ROM have proven
cost-effective elsewhere in the world, NLS could not use such a system
because every book order would require duplication on demand. The technology
required for duplication on demand is sufficiently complex and expensive
that it could not be handled at most network libraries, and NLS could not
afford to provide circulation of all network books directly.
The price of small hard drives has dropped considerably over the past few
years, and, when fully loaded, these devices could hold up to 300 DTBs.
However, a system based on these devices would have many of the same
difficulties as a CD-based system, including shorter battery life and
difficult-to-repair machines. While receiving 300 books at a time might seem
a blessing, most patrons would ultimately find this overwhelming or
inflexible, since the drives could be reloaded only infrequently (perhaps
only every two years), thus limiting access to bestsellers and new releases.
Furthermore, navigating a selection of 300 titles would be daunting for many
readers.
The Universal Serial Bus (USB) flash drive, although not as inexpensive as
CD-ROM or as capacious as a hard drive, strikes the perfect balance between
durability, capacity, and cost. These credit-card-sized devices can hold an
entire DTB and contain flash memory, a type of computer memory that can be
read from, written to, or erased and that does not lose data when power is
removed.
Flash memory has many advantages over other digital media such as CDs or
hard drives while retaining most of the benefits of those formats:
* No moving parts. Playback machines using flash memory will have no
moving parts and will thus be more reliable and longer-lived than machines
using alternative media. Further, they can get equivalent life from a
smaller battery than a machine with moving parts, and, as a result, will be
smaller and lighter and will recharge faster than machines using alternative
media.
* Reusable. Unlike CDs, flash memory cartridges are very durable and
reusable (they can be rewritten thousands of times), and their contents can
be changed by simply plugging the cartridge into a computer-attached writer
and transferring a book directly to it at high speed. (NLS cartridges will
be rewritable only by those responsible for circulating them.)
* Individual or mass-duplicated titles. Flash memory cartridges can be
mass-duplicated just like other media, or they can be duplicated one at a
time as needed. A bank of writers can copy a single DTB title to multiple
cartridges simultaneously or write a different title to each cartridge, thus
facilitating flexible production.
* Widely available, mature technology. Flash memory came into
widespread use more than ten years ago and can now be found in nearly every
electronic device. The recent precipitous drop in prices, driven by the
popularity of digital cameras and portable digital audio players, has made
flash memory economical enough for NLS to use.
* Declining price. The price of flash memory is declining between 25
and 30 percent a year. If present trends continue as expected, cartridges of
the size needed for DTBs-256 megabytes (MB)-will eventually cost about $5
each.
* Multiple sources. The widespread use of and high demand for flash
memory have spurred many manufacturers of integrated circuits to begin
producing it. Well-known firms are competing with specialist firms, thus
adding to total manufacturing capacity and resulting in an abundance of
inexpensive parts in the time frame targeted by NLS for transition to the
DTB delivery system.
Flash memory is an adaptable technology that is available in many different
formats. However, only one is ideal for use by NLS: the USB flash drive, a
piece of rewritable, nonvolatile memory that can be inserted into and
removed from an electronic device. Files can be transferred to or from it.
The data on a USB flash drive remain intact even when power is cut off from
the device. It attaches, physically and electrically, via a USB 2.0
connector, which the NLS DTBM will also have.
USB flash drives can be purchased off the shelf, and to reduce costs, the
units used by NLS will be largely the same as commercial products except for
two key differences. First, they will have a customized cartridge, or case,
to facilitate easy handling by patrons, hold a large-print/ braille label,
fit snugly into the NLS DTBM, and have maximum durability. Second, they will
also have a modified controller chip to prevent alteration of data stored on
the device except by authorized parties (write-protection). The USB flash
drive is the only flash memory standard that does not specify a physical
format for the card, but is instead standardized only by the characteristics
of its connector. Therefore, the USB flash drive can be built to any size
and shape as long as it has the right connector, and the cartridge can be
customized inexpensively because the internals and connector are standard
and widely produced. NLS will produce these cartridges in sufficient
quantities to ensure that customization adds little to the overall cost.
The USB flash drive will also provide a high degree of technological
independence to NLS because the cartridge will connect to the DTBM using a
standard interface and protocol and the memory technology in the cartridge
can change without any changes to the DTBM or the cartridge writers. If new,
more cost-effective memory technologies are developed, NLS will be able to
use those inside its cartridges with no modifications to other aspects of
the program. Other flash memory formats would couple the DTBM too tightly to
the type of memory used.
It is very important that book media retain data for many years, and most
flash memory products are conservatively specified to retain data for ten
years within a wide temperature and humidity range; actual retention is
probably far longer. It is also important that duplication not be overly
time-consuming, and while the time required to duplicate a book onto a USB
flash drive depends on a number of factors, the most limiting will be the
write speed at which data can be transferred onto a cartridge. The write
speed of current USB flash drives is already sufficient for NLS's needs and
is increasing. Today's mainstream devices can be written to at speeds of
more than 4 MB per second, so an average DTB can be transferred in about 30
seconds. Write speeds are increasing quickly, so by 2008 it is likely that
the write speed of a mainstream device will double.
The average wholesale unit price for a 256-MB USB flash drive (the most
likely capacity) in 2008 is expected to be about $6.72, which is well below
the $10 critical threshold necessary for a flash memory-based book
distribution system to be economically viable. While this price is actually
considerably higher than a comparable set of blank cassettes, much of this
additional cost will be offset by reuse.
Additional price projections show that while capacities continue to
increase, the price of the smallest available part will remain around $5. If
such trends continue, the 128-MB cartridge will hit this price level within
a few years of the rollout of DTBs, and this should be followed by the
256-MB and 512-MB capacities in subsequent years. At some point, some of
these cartridges may be discontinued because of their small size. But the
USB flash drive standard means that this will have no effect on NLS because
the next-smallest size can be used. As long as the price for at least 128-MB
and probably 256-MB cartridges remains reasonable, the program can continue
indefinitely. There will also be a one-time cost associated with designing
the customized NLS flash memory cartridge, but once the shell and controller
are designed, they will probably remain useful for the life of the program.
Low cost will also make it practical for network libraries and patrons to
purchase their own cartridges. NLS is committed to having libraries continue
to be able to produce local content for use with NLS playback machines, so
it is vital that blank cartridges be reasonably priced. Library-owned
cartridges will also be electronically protected so that only the purchaser
can reuse them.
Since all technologies have a limited life span, NLS has considered the
future of flash memory. Other nonvolatile memory technologies that may, at
some point, eclipse flash for density, speed, or cost are under development.
But the USB flash drive insulates NLS from this change because cartridges
with a new memory technology could easily be substituted without any impact
on patrons or the DTBM. The future of the USB 2.0 connection is more of a
concern because, while the USB has been enormously successful in the
computer industry, it has already undergone several revisions. So far, these
revisions have always kept compatibility in mind, thus ensuring that older
devices continue to work with newer revisions. This is likely to continue
for many years, but even if it does not, there is no reason to believe that
NLS cannot continue to use the current USB standard.
The USB flash drive is reasonably priced, very durable, easy to handle,
customizable, and widely available. It can be quickly and repeatedly read
and written to, and is a robust and adaptable medium that lends itself
perfectly to large-scale circulation, efficient storage for libraries, and
duplication on demand. The USB flash drive meets all of NLS's requirements
for functionality, durability, flexibility, and cost and for these reasons
was selected from among competing alternatives as the medium for the first
DTB delivery system.
Digital rights management
A legal requirement and therefore a fundamental part of the free national
library program is the copyright protection of reading materials. Authors
and publishers grant NLS the right to reproduce their materials only if they
are provided to program patrons in a special format that cannot be used by
ineligible persons. In the current system, this special format consists of
the RC and CBM, which use four rather than the industry-standard two
recording tape tracks and play the tape at 15/16 inches per second (ips)
rather than the industry-standard 1-7/8 ips. While both of these special
attributes of the RC/CBM system also effectively facilitate the compression
of audio content onto the medium used and thereby increase the efficiency of
the delivery system, they simultaneously provide copyright protection.
However, for digital books and magazines, compression of the audio content
alone will not be sufficient to provide copyright protection. Although NLS
is planning to compress DTB data to facilitate more efficient storage,
transmission, and delivery (see "Selection of an Audio Compression Scheme
for DTBs"), the compression algorithm will be off the shelf and not unique
to NLS-produced digital audio materials. In other words, anyone who has the
same compression/decompression application could read compressed NLS digital
audio files. For this reason, compression alone will not provide copyright
protection.
Therefore, beginning in October 2004 and culminating in April 2006 with a
specification, NLS has been developing a Digital Rights Management (DRM)
(copyright protection) plan for DTBs in conjunction with the Daisy
Consortium. The most important component of DRM, by far, is encryption of
the audio data. Encryption involves the use (establishment and management)
of keys used first to encrypt and then later to decrypt data. The
specification uses an encryption scheme based on the National Institute of
Standards and Technology (NIST) Advanced Encryption Standard (Federal
Information Processing Standards Publication 197, November 26, 2001).
However, any such encryption/decryption of DTB data required for effective
DRM must also be transparent to program patrons. NLS is primarily concerned
with making encryption/decryption transparent for patrons playing NLS books
on NLS machines. However, some patrons also play NLS books on third-party
machines, while others also play non-NLS books on NLS machines.
NLS plans to address the primary DRM concern (using NLS books with NLS
machines) by building an NLS collection key into DTBMs. This key will be
used in conjunction with a key on NLS DTBs to facilitate their use with the
machine and will be completely transparent to users.
A similar approach, but using different keys, will enable non-NLS books to
be played on NLS DTBMs. Finally, NLS will work with qualified manufacturers
of third-party machines to incorporate the NLS collection key into their
devices, so that NLS DTBs can be played.
Selection of an audio compression scheme for DTBs
To make distribution on flash memory economically viable, it is essential to
reduce the quantity of audio data in a DTB from that required for a WAV
format (the format in which the audio content is produced originally) to an
alternative one. The average NLS talking book title is approximately 11
hours long and requires about 3.5 gigabytes of data in WAV format. Thus, if
represented in WAV format, the average title would require approximately
fourteen 256-MB cartridges, thus rendering flash memory economically
impossible for NLS.
It is therefore highly desirable to compress the original data rate of 706
kilobits per second (kbps) to 24 kbps. At this level of compression, 95
percent of NLS titles can be written onto single 256-MB flash drive
cartridges. To achieve such aggressive compression ratios (about 29:1),
compression methods must be employed that severely reduce the amount of data
in the original. The reproduced audio will then be different from the
original, but by exploiting the known characteristics of human hearing, this
difference can be designed to be almost imperceptible.
In September 2005, NLS completed the evaluation and selection of the
appropriate audio codec (code-decode) or compression/decompression scheme
for the DTB. The decision on which compression algorithm to use was driven
by the following eight factors, all of which were analyzed for each
candidate:
* Audio quality. The audio quality of the reproduced content should be
as close to the original as possible, and there should be no annoying
impairments or distractions. In general, it is not necessary to have a codec
whose audio quality is higher than that reproducible by the playback machine
or by the listening environment. Since some listeners will use high-quality
headphones, a higher frequency and a higher dynamic range than are needed
for the internal speaker of a playback machine are required. Because the
range of human speech is from several hertz to over 10 kilohertz, it is
desirable to reproduce audio over this entire range.
* Random access navigation. The file format and encoded data structure
must be capable of precise time-based navigation. DTB navigation requires
random access to audio material anywhere within a book. The codec must
therefore allow for decoding to commence at any point in the audio stream,
and players must be able to locate that point with minimum delay.
* Embedded processor. The choice of the embedded processor used in the
DTBM is the product of many trade-offs. It is essential that the particular
codec selected have an efficient implementation that can be used on the
chosen processor. Given the development cost and time required, the
complexity, and the associated risks, writing an implementation for a codec
from scratch is not desirable.
* Complexity. Generally, the higher the compression ratio a codec
provides (for the same audio quality), the more complex the encoding and
decoding process. Because embedded processors have limited capabilities yet
must also be able to execute the decoder at three times normal playing speed
while simultaneously performing time-scale modification (pitch restoration)
processing, an upper limit on the complexity of the decoding process is
effectively established. The processor should also consume as little power
as possible to ensure a long battery life and low heat generation, and the
complexity of the decoder directly affects these requirements.
* Supportability. Because the selected codec will be used for playing
back NLS books (both physical and Internet-delivered) for several decades,
it must be available on future encoding and decoding platforms. The
availability of the source code for the codec is an important factor in the
long-term viability of the encoding scheme, and NLS must ensure that the
codec is available for future models of the playback machine and for book
production tools.
* Suitability for DTB production. The encoder must be available to
NLS's DTB producers and to network libraries in a form that can be
integrated into book production tools. The encoding process should be speedy
to avoid bottlenecks, and the cost should be reasonable.
* Standards. The codec selected should conform to a well-defined
industrial standard and be backed by a recognized standards body. With an
open standard, multiple sources can provide support.
* Licensing. Because the law requires that the intellectual property
rights of the codec's patent owners be respected, NLS must pay the required
royalties and license fees for each playback machine manufactured and for
each copy of the encoder used by NLS, its producers, and network libraries.
Thus the costs associated with licensing by NLS and third-party
manufacturers must be considered in the selection. Fees typically include an
initial payment to the licensing body and a per machine encoder fee, and
some licensing bodies require fees for the production of the material
encoded in their format.
The NLS Engineering and Quality Assurance Sections first researched
available codecs with respect to these factors and narrowed the field for
further evaluation to the following: (1) MPEG 1 layer III (MP3), (2) MPEG 4
High-Efficiency Advanced Audio Codec (HE-AAC), and (3) Adaptive Multi-Rate
Wideband Plus (AMR-WB+). Because it is not possible to reliably determine
the audio quality of encoding algorithms by objective measurement, listening
tests were performed.
The test procedures required expert listeners, so participants included
staff from the NLS Recording Studio and Engineering and Quality Assurance
Sections and several DLTPG members; in all, twenty-nine people took part.
Each of the codecs was compared against the original (uncompressed) audio
sample at several bit rates for four different audio clips using both male
and female narrators. The grading scale ranged from 1 (the impairments due
to compression were very annoying) to 5 (the impairments were
imperceptible).
On the basis of both the listening tests and the other evaluation criteria,
NLS selected the AMR-WB+ codec, which provides the highest-quality audio at
the lowest bit rates of all the codecs tested. Other codecs would require
higher bit rates for equivalent audio quality, would consequently require
more flash memory cartridges for a given title, and hence would incur higher
media costs. AMR-WB+ would also minimize Internet download times relative to
the use of other codecs.
DTB preparation
NLS is developing and implementing the steps needed to produce
distribution-ready DTBs. At this juncture, it appears that the process will
effectively involve five steps.
The first step is the narration of the reading material from the print
original and creation of the digital audio files in WAV format. These files
are often referred to as the "raw audio" files. This step is currently
performed for the production of master files for use in mass duplication of
cassette books. The current process calls for the narration contractor to
provide NLS with the WAV files for a book on CD, for inclusion in the NLS
audio archive.
The second step is the addition of announcements and XML (extensible markup
language) files to the raw audio file in accordance with the DTB standard.
Three types of XML files are added to the book files: (1) OPF files, which
package the final meta-data from the NLS Production Inventory Control System
(PICS); (2) NCX files, which provide navigation for the audio material; and
(3) SMIL files, which support linear playback.
The third step is the compression of the digital audio files into an
alternative compressed format using a codec to significantly improve the
economy of both duplication of audio materials onto flash memory cartridges
and transmission over telecommunication channels for Internet delivery.
While the current compression algorithm is for the MP3 format, this will
shortly be changed to the AMR-WB+ codec.
The fourth step will be the application of DRM via encryption of the
compressed audio files and several of the XML files.
The fifth and final step is the creation of an image format file of the
protected DTB master files. An image format of a group of files facilitates
much more rapid copying of the data compared with copying the individual
files separately. In a copying operation, an image file is effectively
treated as a single file rather than as multiple component files, and both
read operations from a source drive and write operations to an object drive
can therefore be performed much more quickly.
Digital book and magazine downloads
NLS has begun to offer Internet downloads of digital books and magazines to
patrons of the free national library program. This effort began with an
ongoing pilot project for magazines that was launched in late 2003.
In the pilot program, between fifty and sixty patrons are doing Internet
downloads of magazines. Three titles are offered: U.S. News & World Report
(weekly), Smart Computing in Plain English (monthly), and People (one issue
per month). The magazines are segmented and available for download by
article or as complete magazines, and navigation aids are included. The
digital magazine files are provided in MP3 format.
To use the magazine download service, patrons must have both Internet access
(preferably a high-speed channel) and a playback machine. A patron first
uses the Internet to download the article or articles from the NLS server
onto a personal computer (PC), which stores them. The downloaded files can
then be played on a PC by using a software player or on portable devices
compliant with the NLS format.
This pilot will be replaced in late 2006 by a larger initiative that will
include more magazines as well as a large selection of books.
Playback Machine Transition Study
Until FY 2008, all audio materials for the free national library program
will be produced and distributed only on cassette. Because the transition to
a digital system will probably require a minimum of four years, patrons
without digital machines will require CBMs during the transition phase. But
CBMs will also be required during and after the transition by patrons who
wish to access RC titles not converted to digital format, possibly by
patrons who subscribe to magazines, by patrons who will not accept the new
technology, and by patrons who are playing back recorded materials not
produced by NLS (local-interest materials or textbooks).
NLS and its CBM (C1 model) contractor have a special relationship because
NLS is effectively the only buyer for the C1 and the contractor is
effectively the only supplier. NLS does not have the option of deferring C1
production and procurement for any significant period of time and then
resuming production. When NLS stops buying machines, the contractor will
dismantle the C1 production line permanently. Furthermore, for operations to
be economically feasible, the contractor must produce C1s at a minimum
threshold; the primary constraints are minimum quantity buys for assemblies
and parts provided by subcontractors and suppliers. The current level of C1
production is 42,000 units annually, which is at this minimum threshold.
Therefore, in September 2004, a comprehensive structured requirements
analysis that addressed the phasing-out of CBMs from the free library
program and the phasing-in of DTBMs was completed. The analysis considered
inventory levels of CBMs and repair parts; demand for and procurement of new
CBMs, repair parts, and commercial repair labor; library staff, volunteer,
and commercial CBM repairs performed and repair capacities; establishment of
program policies that influence demand for CBMs; and all other relevant
factors for the time period before the beginning of the planned transition
(FY 2004 to FY 2007), during the transition (FY 2008 to FY 2011), and
afterward (FY 2012 and beyond). The study focused on NLS-incurred costs.
Earlier disk players and combination machines still in use were not
addressed in the analyses because their use is so limited.
The phasing-in of DTBMs was also addressed. However, because the DTBM had
not yet been designed or mass-produced when the study was performed,
important logistical attributes such as the production capacity of
manufacturers, wholesale unit price, quantity discount potential, longevity
(estimated useful life), reliability (time between failures), and
maintainability (time/cost to repair) were unknown. Therefore, the best
estimates by NLS technical staff were used for these unknown values.
Also, because of these unknown values and the intrinsic need for them, a
flexible planning tool was developed that would incorporate the results from
the DTBM design project when they become known. The tool is a computer-based
mathematical model that facilitates the formulation and evaluation of
alternative long-term implementation plans for the transition of playback
machines to the future digital system.
The project involved collecting and analyzing source data and interviewing
NLS staff to understand the current logistics system. Multiyear data on the
following program factors were collected, compiled, and analyzed: RC book
and magazine readership, circulation of RC books and magazines, CBM and CBM
repair parts inventories, repair parts production and prices, repair parts
prices and parts on order, attrition due to loss or to machines damaged
beyond repair (DBR), repairs performed by type of repairer, and repair parts
consumption by type of repairer. Results were derived for three classes of
machines: C1s, E1s, and all other CBMs (except CT1s and C2s). Certain
logistical parameters such as average loss rates, DBR rates, failure rates,
and repair parts and labor consumption rates were then determined from
analysis of empirical data for each class of machine. An additional analysis
was also performed using detailed (title-level) historical RC circulation
data from a sample of regional libraries (RLs) to estimate the demand for RC
books (and hence the demand for CBM play-time) associated with NLS titles
that will not be converted to digital format.
A mathematical model was then developed from the derived logistical
parameters and from other data inputs (the unit price for C1s under the
current contract, unit labor cost to repair a C1, etc.) to evaluate outcomes
for various inputs to the system over a 14-year planning horizon (FY 2004 to
FY 2017) via simulation with calculations performed and results presented on
both annual and multiyear bases. The basic logic of the planning model is as
follows:
* Beginning with current inventories of CBMs (available, in repair,
and assigned) and CBM repair parts as initial conditions for the system, the
model takes into account system-wide accession and attrition of machines and
repair parts and the consumption of productive resources, in some cases with
respect to constraints.
* The workload placed on machines generated by the assumed system-wide
readership and circulation is estimated.
* Machine failures based on the calculated workload (and hence
required repairs) are estimated.
* The attrition of machines is estimated by loss and by DBR based on
quantities on loan and machine workload, respectively.
* Repair capacity is allocated to repair needs, preferentially
applying warranty repair capacity first, followed by volunteer repair
capacity, and then commercial repair capacity.
* The consumption of repair parts and repair labor is calculated by
using the number of repairs performed by type of repairer and applying
consumption ratios based on historical data.
* User-specified production quantities and contract prices for new
machines are applied.
* Procurement quantities for repair parts on a "lifetime-buy" basis
are determined.
* The status of ending CBM inventories is calculated based on
beginning inventories, new production, attrition, failures, and repairs
performed.
* Appropriate unit costs are applied, and total costs for new machine
production, repair parts purchases, and labor for commercial repairs are
calculated.
Multiple operational scenarios were evaluated using the planning model, with
baseline (default) values for the factors over which it was felt that NLS
has little or no control, and focusing specifically on the evaluation of
alternatives for the most important factors that NLS can control-new machine
production and commercial repair levels. A number of findings and
recommendations resulted from these evaluations, the more important of which
are summarized next:
* C1 production levels. Even though an excess inventory of CBMs
existed as of the middle of 2004, that excess plus the balance of production
under option year 1 (initiated in FY 2004) of the current contract would not
provide enough of a supply to carry the program through the transition to
the digital system even if C1 commercial repair capacity were increased to
12,000 per year. The same was found to be true for production for option
years 1 and 2, both at nominal (current at the time) and higher levels of C1
commercial repair being performed. Production for option years 1 through 3
was determined to provide enough new CBMs to ensure smooth operations
through both the transition and residual phases of operations, especially if
higher rather than nominal levels of commercial repair were employed.
While it is desirable not to have a production gap between the cessation of
CBM production and the commencement of DTBM production, it was determined to
be very unlikely that option year 4 production would be required unless
delays in DTBM production and/or an increase in the patron base occurred as
a result of outreach campaigns or other reasons. The approach recommended
was for C1 production during option years 1 through 3 of the current
contract, with C1 commercial repairs being increased as soon as possible to
reach 12,000 per year in FY 2007. The superior economy of repairing versus
replacing CBMs, given both the relatively high price of new C1s and the
large subsidy provided by volunteer repair of CBMs, was the driving force
behind this recommendation.
* Commercial repair levels for C1s. It was recommended that NLS take
two steps. The first was to retain the current C1 commercial repair
contractor and obtain another one. The second was to have these contractors
increase total repair capacity in annual steps to reach a level of 12,000 in
FY 2007 and for later years until no longer required. However, it was also
recommended that if NLS plans to exercise the option for year 4 of the C1
contract, then commercial repair capacity should not be increased because
there would be no advantage given the forecasted system-wide time-phased
demand for and supply of CBMs over the planning horizon. NLS has retained
its C1 repair contractor and is working to bring another one online. How
much their production will be increased over current levels is being
determined.
* DTBM production levels. The baseline NLS plan at the time the
Playback Machine Transition Study was conducted has been modified. NLS now
projects production of 60,000 machines in FY 2007, 120,000 in FY 2008,
145,000 in FY 2009, 134,000 in FY 2010, and 129,000 in 2011, and a
maintenance level thereafter (see appendix 4
<http://www.loc.gov/nls/businessplan/appendix06/BizPlan2006App4.rtf.pdf> ).
Considerations included DTBM manufacturing capacity, a ramping up of DTBM
product introduction as unit quality is verified, and annual fiscal
constraints for machines in particular and for total program operations in
general. Fiscal resource constraints indicated that the feasibility of
implementing a rapid transition plan (the purchase of all the DTBMs required
for the system at one time) was questionable.
* Digital periodicals. It was determined that if only playback
machine-related costs are considered, there is no economic incentive to
accelerate the conversion of periodicals from cassette to digital format.
Specifically, there would be no savings, and in fact there would be a slight
cost increase. NLS plans to provide magazines on cassette through the entire
transition period and probably for several years into the residual phase of
CBM operations, depending on the wholesale unit price for flash memory.
* Alternative CBM. It was determined that an alternative, less
expensive CBM should not be developed for and used in the program. The
technology itself is becoming obsolete, the reliability and hence service
for patrons would be poor, machine-lending agency staff and patrons would
have to be retrained to use the new machine, and the fact that it would
require at least two years to solicit, select, make contract award, and
develop an alternative model would further complicate the relatively
intricate plan for implementing digital technology. NLS has determined not
to pursue the development of an alternative CBM.
* CBM repair parts. The contractor provided NLS with data files for
various implementation plans that had been formulated and evaluated.
Information from the repair parts module of the computer planning model,
which determines the total quantity of repair parts required for future
operations by line item (lifetime-buy quantities), was provided for the
recommended and other most feasible implementation plans. NLS is using this
information to purchase CBM repair parts and to determine the lifetime-buy
requirement for some parts, especially critical ones.
* DTBM warranty. While the specifics of a manufacturer's warranty (the
coverage to be provided and the associated cost) for the DTBM were unknown
at the time the study was performed and indeed are still unknown, it was
nevertheless recommended that NLS have manufacturer's warranty protection of
some type. It is not possible to say which terms would be the most
advantageous at this juncture, but it was recommended that the manufacturer
be required to provide NLS with several term and pricing options, as well as
all life-cycle test data accumulated during product development. NLS concurs
with this recommendation and intends to have a manufacturer's warranty of
some type for the DTBM.
Most major aspects of playback machine operations will remain fundamentally
unchanged with the implementation of DTBMs. Distribution of new DTBM
production will be made directly from manufacturer(s) to network libraries
via the USPS. Allocations to network libraries will be made based on
recorded book readership. Libraries will loan machines to patrons, who will
use them to play reading materials and return them to the library when they
become defective or are no longer needed. NLS will determine the machine
parts necessary for ongoing repairs and procure, store, and distribute them
to locations where repairs are being performed. The attrition associated
with lost DTBMs as a proportion of assigned machine inventory will probably
be about the same as it is now.
Three aspects of future playback machine operations, however, will probably
be significantly different. The DBR rate for DTBMs will be lower than it is
for CBMs because of the higher reliability of the fundamental design of the
machine (no electromechanical components). Failure frequency, and hence
repair rates, will be lower than for CBMs due to the more reliable design.
Costs for repair parts will therefore be lower than for CBMs because of the
lower failure frequency and because the DTBM will not contain
electromechanical parts.
The disposition of CBM inventories will be driven by the evolutionary course
that RC collections and circulation follow. Given the size of the projected
CBM inventories in the residual phase of the transition, any patrons who
want to keep CBMs after the transition is complete may be able to do so.
Procedures for disposing of excess CBM inventory in the residual phase will
be worked out at that time.
Player, cartridge, and container design
The most important ongoing NLS initiative for implementing the future flash
memory-based digital system is the design of the DTB cartridge, mailing
container, and playback machine. A single contract was awarded to design,
develop, and transition-to-manufacture these products, with work commencing
in March 2005. A prime contractor, assisted by several subcontractors with
complementary expertise, will ensure complete compatibility of the cartridge
and container. The current goal is to have final design specifications for
these products by late spring of 2007.
A hallmark of this design contract is its emphasis on user testing. A series
of eight usability tests are required throughout the course of the contract,
involving patrons selected to vary by age, gender, and disability. Four
usability tests have been completed to date.
In April 2005, seventy-nine users participated in focus groups in Baltimore;
Los Angeles; Clearwater, Florida; and Madison, Wisconsin. The contractor
tested initial concepts for products (considering size, shape, general
features, etc.) and validated that NLS's initial requirements for the
playback machine, cartridge, and mailing container were, in general, correct
and reflected the needs of users, library staff, and repair personnel.
Results supported the need for two machines-a basic player aimed at the
majority of NLS users and an advanced player designed for patrons who wish
to have more complex navigation capabilities.
In July and August 2005, the contractor tested preliminary prototypes with
sixty-five users in Baltimore, Cleveland, and Madison. The prototypes were
realistic models that allowed the contractor to determine how easily users
could learn new features and how effectively they could execute specific
tasks. The key elements tested were the layout and operation of controls
(both basic and advanced models), the design of the cartridge, its insertion
into the machine, the use of the handle, and the stowing of the power cord.
The next round of testing was conducted in October and November 2005, with
seventy-one users in Cleveland; Watertown, Massachusetts; and Madison. The
tests confirmed that the overall design of the basic machine was appropriate
to the intended population and gathered detailed information on two
alternative user interfaces for the advanced machine. Users indicated their
strong preference for the smaller of two design options, provided feedback
on early concepts for cartridge labeling, and evaluated several mailing
container models.
In March 2006, the contractor tested revised machine and cartridge models
with forty-nine participants in Richmond, Virginia; Rocky Hill, Connecticut;
and in Washington, D.C., at NLS headquarters. The results confirmed that the
reduced size of the machine was pleasing to all types of users and that the
physical design and layout of controls for both basic and advanced players
were correct. Users indicated that further work was needed on some aspects
of the fast-forward and rewind features of the basic machine, but confirmed
that all other major operating features of both machines were functioning
appropriately. Users approved the physical design of the cartridge and the
proposed large-print and braille labeling approach, but indicated that
further work was needed on the design of the mailing container.
Machines and cartridges were tested under all usability circumstances,
including private homes, community settings, and retirement centers-to
guarantee that the oldest patrons were represented-as well as at network
libraries. In addition to executing the tests, the contractor interviewed
library staff and repair personnel at network libraries.
The first tests were done with realistic models wired to external devices
that performed the DTBM functions. The contractor has also been executing
the industrial design efforts and the electrical, audio, mechanical, and
software engineering tasks required to develop a comprehensive design for
each product. These tasks led to the first fully functional prototypes
tested in September 2006.
Describing in detail all of the features of the new machine, cartridge, and
container is beyond the scope of this document. However, the following list
includes the features that will be most evident and most beneficial to users
(both patrons and library staff).
Digital Playback Machine
* Approximately one-third the size of the C1
* Approximately one-half the weight of the C1
* CD-quality audio
* Feature to help users find their place after they have fallen asleep
* Very simple user interface on the basic machine (easier than the E1)
* Built-in audio prompts that make it easy to learn how to operate the
machine
* Keys that are easier to press than on the C1
* Fast, flexible navigation with the advanced machine
* Twice the playing time on batteries compared with the C1
* Designed to last ten years in the field without repair
* Resistant to spilled liquids
* Far easier to clean than the C1
* Large, well-spaced keys with tactile and color indicators
* Audio prompts that may be set to English or Spanish as necessary
* Variable speed with constant pitch
Digital Cartridge
* Robust
* Slightly smaller than an audio cassette
* Very little manipulation of media required, since books will fit on
a single cartridge 95 percent of the time
* Labels to accommodate significantly larger print and more braille
* Only one cartridge, with no rewinding required, to facilitate the
inspection process for returned books
DTB distribution system
A comprehensive study was conducted to design and develop the best
distribution system for flash memory-based DTBs. This effort, which was
initiated in March 2005 and completed in August 2006, had two phases. The
first, completed in September 2005, was a feasibility study in which
fundamental options for the DTB distribution system were evaluated and the
best implementation option was selected. In the second phase, the contractor
is developed a detailed design for the selected future distribution system,
including estimated resource requirements and associated costs, system
specifications, and a detailed transition plan for implementation.
The major accomplishments of the first phase of the project were the
development of a mathematical model of the future distribution system for
DTBs, the estimation of the costs for three distribution options using the
model, the evaluation of the options in terms of economic and noneconomic
factors, and the selection of the best implementation option. The
distribution options that were evaluated are as follows:
* The all mass-duplication option, whereby distribution of DTBs would
use the current business model in which all NLS-produced book titles are
mass-duplicated, allocated to network libraries, and stored in library
collections and circulated to patrons.
* The hybrid option, in which the titles with the greatest anticipated
demand but constituting a minority of the titles produced would be
mass-duplicated, allocated to network libraries, and distributed per the
current business model, but the titles anticipated to be relatively less
popular and constituting a majority of the titles produced would have
duplication-on-demand (DOD) at one or two automated centers operated under
contract for NLS.
* The all-DOD option, in which all DTB titles would be distributed
from DOD centers.
Under each of these three options, all patron contact would be with network
libraries and none with the DOD centers, other than the receipt and return
of the books themselves. Under the hybrid and all-DOD options, libraries
would automatically place orders with DOD centers via their information
systems and telecommunications and would receive order confirmation and
status from the centers the same way.
The analyses considered only recorded books, not recorded magazines.
Although the focus of the analyses was a feasibility study rather than an
implementation study, the processes required for duplicating flash drive
DTBs were conceptualized, and the functional requirements, resource
requirements, and associated costs were estimated. The analyses were based
on steady-state distribution operations after all patrons in the program who
wish them have DTBMs, and it was assumed that DTBM implementation would be
identical under all options.
Both NLS and network library distribution costs, but not USPS costs, were
considered. The impact of the distribution options on network library costs
was based on the NLS life-cycle cost model updated with FY 2004 data. It was
assumed that the quantity and mix of DTB titles produced by NLS and the
demand for them in the future would be identical or very similar to those in
the current system and that title composition and demand would be identical
under all distribution options.
Data were collected from NLS, network libraries, and several external
sources and then compiled and analyzed to develop a statistical profile of
the current system and to model and estimate costs for the future DTB
distribution system. Relevant aspects of current RC operations were
evaluated, and relevant aspects of future DTB operations were conceptualized
to develop values for key variables and other important factors. Major areas
of focus and analysis as well as associated findings are summarized next:
* Book production. Analyses of multiyear data from the NLS PICS
database were performed. It was learned that the RC collections in network
libraries consist of about 45,000 titles; that annual production is constant
at about 2,000 new book titles per year; that the average number of copies
produced per title is 932 (median, 855), ranging from lows in the upper 400s
to about 2,000 for the most popular titles; that the average length of
titles (in minutes) is just over 11 hours (676 minutes), with the shortest
being only a few minutes and the longest being dozens of hours; that 98.5
percent of RC books fit into one container (whether made for four or six
cassettes); that total RC narration and duplication costs per year for NLS
are each about $5 million (total, $10 million) including containers
separately purchased and provided as government-furnished equipment (GFE);
that in recent years, about 30 to 40 new titles per year have been produced
in a foreign language (mostly Spanish); and that if NLS used 256-MB flash
drive cartridges with the selected codec, about 95 percent of new titles
produced would fit on one cartridge.
* Macro-level book circulation. Using FY 2004 data, an analysis of RC
book circulation by RLs and subregional libraries (SRLs) was performed.
Network-wide circulation is about 20 million copies per year, ranging from
1.2 million for the largest RL to about 500 for the smallest SRL. Activity
shows a large number of small operations, a moderate number of larger
mid-size operations, and a small number of large operations. Circulation to
individual readers constitutes the majority of the total (95 percent).
* Network library RC operations. Several site visits were made to the
Maryland RL, where RC distribution operations were observed and several
special data collections were performed to establish a basis for network
library book distribution operations. The entire process was examined,
including the overall operating schedule; receipt, check-in, and inspection
of new and returned books; placement of books into both quick-turnaround and
collection storage; picking and shipping of books from both quick-turnaround
and main collection storage areas; storage equipment utilization for RC
storage; facility space and labor utilization; information system support
provided; interactions with the USPS; interaction with NLS multistate
centers (MSCs) for interlibrary loans; and collection consolidation and
weeding.
* Book loss rate. An analysis using data from eight Keystone Library
Automation System (KLAS) RLs and two KLAS SRLs was performed to determine
the average loss rate for DTBs, assuming that it would be the same as for RC
books. Four years of data (FY 2001 to FY 2004) were analyzed for three
classes of loss: lost by readers, lost by libraries, and total lost. There
were reporting differences among libraries in both the conventions used and
the magnitude of losses. It was concluded that NLS will experience a loss
rate of about 3 percent of circulation for DTBs.
* Book turnaround time. An analysis was performed to determine the
average circulation turnaround time for DTBs, assuming that it would be the
same as for RC books. For this purpose, detailed patron-level "has-had" data
from eight RLs and two SRLs for FY 2004 were analyzed, as were calculations
of turnaround time provided by two Consortium of User Libraries (CUL)
members. It was determined that the average circulation turnaround time for
DTBs system-wide will be about 35 days.
* Sources of book circulation. The RC has-had data at eight RLs and
two SRLs for FY 2004 were analyzed to determine the proportion of total book
circulation generated automatically by library automation systems through
Profile Select procedures versus that generated by orders for specific
titles. It was determined that a majority of total circulation is generated
by Profile Select procedures and that about 65 percent of DTB circulation
system-wide will be generated through Profile Select.
* Micro-level book circulation. Detailed (title-level) multiyear (FY
2001 to FY 2004) RC circulation data from eight RLs and two SRL KLAS
libraries and one CUL library were analyzed to determine profiles and
characteristics of recorded book demand. It was determined that Pareto's Law
(whereby a minority of titles constitutes a majority of the circulation)
applied to individual libraries and to the system as a whole, on both a
collection and new title production basis. In the case of collections, the
most popular 20 percent of titles in library collections (regardless of age)
account for over 80 percent of the circulation; in fact, the top 15 percent
of titles in the collection constitute about 80 percent of the circulation.
It was also found that, generally, the most popular titles system-wide are
the most popular titles in individual libraries; there is little variation
in reading habits and hence title demand among libraries. The popularity of
titles wanes rapidly with age, with titles no more than six years old
(regardless of individual popularity) constituting about 80 percent of total
circulation. A significant initial waning of popularity occurs after about
three years, followed by another pronounced drop after six to eight years to
a residual level. Because of this waning popularity, a Pareto's Law effect
was found to exist on the basis of the circulation of new titles produced,
but it is not as strong as the collection-based relationship. If NLS were,
for example, to implement a title-based hybrid operation whereby the most
popular new titles were mass-produced and it was determined to be desirable
that they generate 80 percent of the total circulation, then about 40
percent of new production must be mass-produced because popularity wanes so
significantly with age, regardless of how popular titles were initially. It
was found that the length (duration in minutes) of titles has no effect on
demand, and it was also found that by far the most popular genres are
mysteries, romance, suspense, and westerns.
* Flash drive characteristics. Characteristics relevant to future
distribution operations-including wholesale unit price, write speed, and
erase speed-were considered. A wholesale unit price of $6 per 256-MB
cartridge was assumed to be valid for FY 2012 (that is, in steady-state
operations after all patrons have DTBMs). The write speed was assumed to be
at least 2 MB per second, but more likely 4 MB per second (or higher, using
image format files). The erase speed for a cartridge loaded with an average
NLS book (about 120 MB) was estimated to be several (1 to 5) seconds. See
appendix 5
<http://www.loc.gov/nls/businessplan/appendix06/BizPlan2006App5.pdf> for a
tabular representation of worldwide USB flash drive market trends. (These
trends indicate that the price per 256-MB cartridge used in the distribution
study will be significantly lower than assumed.)
* Library automated data processing (ADP) systems. Preliminary,
macro-level functional specifications for library ADP systems under each of
the distribution options were developed. The most significant finding was
that the bulk of anticipated required enhancements would be absorbed as part
of ongoing software maintenance, but any third-party software that would
have to be integrated would have to be paid for by users.
* Other work performed. The contractor also developed capacity
comparisons of current cassette container shelving with pro forma DTB
cartridge storage in containers for mass-duplicated titles. Comparative
storage capacities for varying shelf spacing, DTB container height, DTB
container width, and shelf section storage heights were developed. Potential
reductions in network library storage space requirements were determined.
Finally, alternatives for labeling the container for mass-duplicated DTBs
were developed.
A cost model was then developed and used to evaluate the distribution
options. The logic for the cost model was devised, values developed or
assumed for key variables were used, and sensitivity analyses were performed
for different workload allocations in the hybrid model. The estimated costs
for the distribution options were then compared and contrasted.
Finally, an evaluation matrix that used weighting factors for noneconomic as
well as economic factors was developed. The distribution options were then
scored and evaluated by applying the weights in this matrix. The results of
the analyses were presented to and discussed with the DLTPG in August 2005.
At the end of this process, the best distribution option, in terms of both
economic and noneconomic factors, was recommended for implementation.
When noneconomic factors were considered in tandem with costs, the hybrid
option was determined to be superior to the all mass-duplication option if
between 25 and 40 percent of new titles were mass-duplicated, and it was
only very slightly less than the all mass-duplication option if 45 to 50
percent of new titles were mass-duplicated. However, while flash memory and
the mass production of flash drives is a mature technology, the mass
production of DTBs via either mass duplication or DOD is only in the
formative stage. Furthermore, DOD (on a mass scale) will be a more complex
process requiring greater capital investment and set-up time for operations
than mass duplication of DTBs will. Also, libraries will have to make
certain minimum enhancements to their information systems to function
properly in the future system, especially with regard to working with the
DOD centers. For all these reasons, it was recommended that DTB distribution
begin with the mass-duplication option only during and after the transition
period. DOD will be reevaluated as the system evolves, and a hybrid
distribution option of some type may be implemented after 2012.
NLS intends to follow this course of action. Because smaller numbers of
mass-duplicated DTBs will be required during the first three years of the
transition period, during which RC duplication will also continue (fewer DTB
titles and fewer copies per title produced), it will be economically
feasible to implement a limited, and possibly temporary, all
mass-duplication option. During this period, DTB flash drive duplication
technology will be further developed, and library ADP systems can be
enhanced and operating procedures initiated or adopted.
Prequalification for the manufacture of DTBMs and DTB cartridges and
containers
In the autumn of 2005, NLS began a presolicitation process for the
manufacture of the DTBM and DTB cartridge. As a first step, NLS solicited
responses from interested firms and reviewed their responses.
During the design phase, feedback is being solicited from potential
suppliers on the feasibility of manufacturing these products from both
technical and economic perspectives so that, if necessary, appropriate
changes can be made before designs are finalized. While the DTBM and DTB
cartridge are being designed first to maximize utility to patrons and second
to maximize operational efficiency for NLS and the network libraries, it
must also be possible to mass-produce these products given existing
manufacturing technologies and NLS budgetary constraints.
Section 3: Current and Future Costs and Transition Plans
This section describes and estimates the major costs of the future digital
system for both NLS and network libraries, but not USPS. These estimates
consider book production and distribution, and machine production and
repair, but not magazines; the magazine program will likely continue much as
is throughout the transition and possibly for several years afterward. The
estimates assume a steady-state operation, or mature delivery system, in
which the transition to a digital-based system is complete, DTBs and DTBMs
constitute the primary technology, and all patrons who want a DTBM have one.
As a baseline for comparison, the major costs of current RC/CBM operations
for NLS and network libraries are also estimated. Finally, two scenarios for
implementing the distribution of DTBs and DTBMs are developed and examined:
The first assumes that NLS receives all of the supplemental funding that has
been requested for the transition, and the second assumes that no
supplemental funding is received.
Current costs
The following lists, based on recent experience, show the major costs
currently incurred by NLS for the cassette-based system, exclusive of
magazines. Included are the major costs for both recorded book and playback
machine operations, exclusive of costs for NLS management of the free
library program. The assumptions used to estimate current costs are as
follows:
Production and duplication of titles
* Recorded titles produced annually. Approximately 2,000 book titles
are produced in RC format annually. The five-year average for FY 2001 to FY
2005 was 1,987 titles shipped per year, ranging from a low of 1,872 in FY
2005 to a high of 2,136 in FY 2001. Title masters are produced in digital
format and then converted to analog format for RC production.
* Average production cost per master. The average production cost of a
book title master has been relatively stable for about the past four years
at about $2,900.
* Annual cost of master production. The total current annual cost of
producing book title masters is approximately $5,800,000.
* Average RC copies per title. The average number of RC copies
produced per title is about 925, ranging from lows in the upper 400s to
highs of about 2,000 for the most popular bestsellers.
* Average duplication cost per RC copy. The duplication cost per RC
copy, including all materials, labor, and capital equipment charges except
for the containers (which are provided as GFE), is $2.16 per copy. This is
the weighted-average value for FY 2001-FY 2005 titles. An average RC book
requires 2.3 cassettes.
* Annual cost for RC containers. NLS uses both new and reconditioned
four- and six-cassette containers. During FY 2004, 1,400,000 four-cassette
and 60,000 six-cassette containers were purchased for $0.51 and $1.10
apiece, respectively, for a total of $780,000. Reconditioned containers
require about $0.33 each for processing, which when applied to the residual
annual container requirement for mass duplication (about 400,000 units)
yields an annual cost of about $132,000. Therefore, the total annual
container cost is about $912,000.
* Annual cost of RC mass duplication. The total annual cost for mass
duplication of RCs, including the cost of containers, is approximately
$4,908,000, or $2.65 per copy.
The total annual production cost for cassette books, including both title
production and mass duplication, is approximately $10,708,000.
Production and repair of playback machines
* CBMs produced annually. Current CBM production under option year 2
of the C1 production contract is 42,000 units per year. It was determined
during the Playback Machine Transition Study that, for a patron base that
remains at current levels, producing 40,000 CBMs per year just manages to
compensate for total system-wide annual machine attrition from both lost
machines (about 25,000) and machines damaged beyond repair (about 15,000).
Therefore, CBM production barely exceeds the level required to compensate
for attrition. For the purposes of an equitable comparison with costs
estimated for the future digital system, a production rate of 40,000
machines per year is assumed for current operations.
* CBM unit price. The current unit price for a C1 machine is
approximately $280, slightly below the contract price of $287.41 for option
year 2; the exact price paid by NLS can be slightly higher or lower than the
contract price because of fluctuations in the value of the dollar against
the yen. A unit price of $290 has been used to determine current costs.
* Annual cost for machine production. The total annual production cost
for CBMs is approximately $11,600,000, assuming 40,000 machines produced at
$290 each.
* Annual cost for CBM parts and batteries. The annual cost for CBM
repair parts and batteries is approximately $2,750,000, which includes
requirements for C1s, E1s, and older CBMs repaired by library staff,
volunteers, and commercial firms. This estimate is based on 2,000 C1
commercial repairs using $40 in parts per average repair, 4,500 E1
commercial repairs using $45 in parts per average repair, and 123,000
volunteer and library staff repairs (the FY 2004 total) using $20 in parts
per average repair.
* Annual cost for commercial repair (labor only). The annual cost for
commercial CBM repairs, performed by two contractors, is about $370,000
(labor and overhead only; NLS supplies all parts for these repairs as GFE).
This total includes costs for repairs to both C1 machines (about 2,000
repairs at $39.95 per repair) and E1 machines (about 4,500 repairs at $64.45
per repair).
The total annual cost associated with cassette playback machines, including
all production and repair, is approximately $14,720,000.
Total cost for current operations
The major annual cost incurred by NLS for current RC and CBM operations is
approximately $25,428,000. About 58 percent of the total cost is associated
with machines and 42 percent with books. This amount represents a baseline
for comparison with the total NLS cost estimated for the future DTB
distribution and DTBM system.
Revenues for implementation of the future system
In the middle of FY 2003, NLS submitted a long-term funding request to the
LOC for a special appropriation to implement the free national library
program's future digital system, incorporating flash memory-based DTBs,
DTBMs, and the hybrid business model. The supplemental funding represents
the large capital investments-primarily for DTBMs and secondarily for DTB
flash drive cartridges-to implement the new system in a reasonable amount of
time. After DTBMs have largely replaced CBMs and inventories of flash drive
cartridges have been accumulated for both mass duplication and possible
future duplication on demand, NLS's normal annual funding will suffice for
operating the new system. The total amount of the initial supplemental
funding request was approximately $80 million; about $2 million has been
spent to date on planning and design studies for the new system. This
spending combined with other modifications of the plan has served to reduce
the remaining requested funding to $76.4 million.
While there are still unknowns about certain important aspects of the future
system that are being addressed in ongoing projects, much more is known than
was the case two years ago when the initial implementation plan was
conceived and the initial supplemental funding request was submitted. Also,
while NLS is confident of obtaining the supplemental funding, there is a
chance that only some, or possibly even none, of it may be forthcoming.
Therefore, NLS has formulated preliminary transition plans and estimated the
associated costs for different supplemental funding scenarios. The planning
models from both the Playback Machine Transition Study and the DTB
Distribution Study were used, resulting in a preliminary long-term planning
model for both DTBM and DTB operations that will continue to be refined both
during phase 2 of the DTB Distribution Study and beyond.
The two funding scenarios that have been developed are Plan 1-in which all
patrons who want a DTBM have one by the end of FY 2012-and Plan 2-in which
no supplemental appropriation is obtained and the implementation must be
supported entirely by NLS's normal operating funds ($53,904,510 for FY
2007). Both scenarios assume a flat readership base.
Implementation of the desired transition plan (Plan 1)
NLS strongly believes that the transition to the new technology should occur
by the end of FY 2012 because patrons will benefit from the improved service
and because a prolonged transition involves multiple risks due primarily to
the obsolescence of cassette-based technologies. It is estimated that about
$76.4 million in total supplemental funding should facilitate the
implementation of this plan. All of this would be spent between FY 2008 and
FY 2011.
The fundamental strategy underlying this plan is to proceed with a
relatively rapid implementation by building approximately 60,000 DTBMs in FY
2007, 121,000 in FY 2008, 145,000 in FY 2009, 134,000 in FY 2010, and
129,000 in 2011. (See appendix 4
<http://www.loc.gov/nls/businessplan/appendix06/BizPlan2006App4.rtf.pdf> .)
Thereafter, production will drop off to 32,000 by FY 2017 and should level
out at about 30,000 per year. CBM production will end in FY 2006, and no C1s
will be built during FY 2007 (the last half of option year 3). Funds saved
that would otherwise have been spent on CBMs in FY 2007 will be used to
support the development of the retrospective DTB collection: approximately
20,000 of the most popular book titles will be duplicated in 55 copies each
for allocation to network libraries to begin development of DTB collections
for circulation to patrons in FY 2008, when DTBMs become available.
In this plan, no shortage of CBMs develops during the transition period,
although the available-to-assigned ratio drops from 7.7 percent in FY 2008,
to 4 percent at the end of FY 2009, and returning to 7.4 percent in FY 2010,
after which a continuing surplus of CBMs is expected. There is no shortage
of CBMs in FY 2010-although there is a projected deficiency of E1s. As
noted, enough DTBMs will be made available so that all patrons who want
these machines will have them by the end of FY 2012. During the transition
period, a forced availability factor will be applied to DTBM inventories in
network libraries. That is, for every twenty DTBMs on loan, one will be
reserved in inventory to replace failed machines used by readers who have
already converted to DTBMs (especially the estimated 10 percent who would
have DTBMs only, as opposed to the rest, who would have both machines).
After the transition period, the inventory levels of DTBMs would be brought
up so the available-to-assigned ratio is 10 percent, and production levels
out at about 30,000 machines per year.
DTB cartridges would be first purchased in FY 2007 to produce titles from
the retrospective collection, and then in quantities necessary to support
mass duplication for four years and mass duplication (and possibly
duplication on demand) in subsequent years. Large-scale mass duplication
will begin in FY 2008. DTB cartridges and containers will both be
reconditioned and reused. It was assumed that there would be no weeding of
the retrospective titles from network library collections, but that
otherwise 50 percent of all mass-duplicated copies would be weeded and
reused after three years in circulation and another 25 percent would be
weeded and reused after six years in circulation. Thus, reuse of cartridges
and containers would begin in FY 2012. Maximum purchase requirements would
be about 1,600,000 cartridges in 2011, before any cartridges are made
available from weeding, but would decline after FY 2012, attaining a
steady-state level of under 400,000 by 2017.
For this scenario and for Plan 2 as well, it was assumed that 2,000 new
title masters will be produced annually for every year in the time period.
Under Plan 1, all titles would be mass-duplicated in RC format through FY
2010. This would be the last year of RC mass duplication, because only 26
percent of book reading would come from RCs in FY 2012, and all patrons who
want DTBMs would have them by the end of that year. After 2010, production
quantities would be too small to cost-effectively mass-duplicate RCs.
Volunteers would continue to perform repairs on CBMs during the entire
period, with an assumed reduction of 3 percent per year in capacity. After
the transition period, the number of required volunteer repairs (less than
30,000 per year) drops well below the capacity level. Although volunteers
may perform some DTBM repairs, the model at this stage assumes that all
repairs are performed by commercial repairers. Commercial repair capacity
for C1s would be 6,000 in FY 2007, 9,000 in FY 2008, and 12,000 in FY 2009
and later, plus 4,500 for E1s in all years (assumed for both plans), but
commercial repair of C1s would not be required after FY 2011. Volunteers
could handle all required repairs at that point. Any commercial repairs
after FY 2011 are strictly for E1s, and the volume probably would not be
sufficient to support a contractor. DTBM repairs would increase over time,
ultimately approaching a steady-state number of about 40,000 per year.
The assumed unit prices for new CBMs were taken from the current C1
contract, and it was assumed that the DTBM will cost about $200 per machine.
The wholesale unit price of flash drive cartridges was assumed to begin at
$10 in FY 2007 and gradually decrease to $6 in FY 2011, after which it
remains at that level. The unit price of RC mass duplication was calculated
with the assumption that 25 percent of duplication costs are fixed; hence,
as production quantities decrease, the unit price will increase. The unit
price of both RC and DTB containers was assumed to be constant at $0.60.
Mass-duplication unit cost for DTBs was assumed gradually decrease through
FY 2012 and thereafter because of the economies of scale from larger
production runs. Unit costs for CBM repair parts and commercial labor, for
both C1s and E1s, were taken from current operations, while the average
parts and labor costs for DTBM repairs were each assumed to be $40.
NLS would like to implement this plan and is hopeful that it will be
feasible, especially since the total supplemental funding request is
slightly lower than what was originally envisioned.
Implementation with no supplemental funding (Plan 2)
In Plan 2, no supplemental funding is received, and the new system must be
implemented using only NLS's normal operating funds ($53,904,510 in FY
2007). NLS would prefer to avoid this scenario, both because it will
significantly delay the benefits of the new system for patrons and because
the multiple risks associated with a prolonged transition will significantly
increase the possibility of service interruptions due primarily to the
obsolescence of cassette-based technologies.
The fundamental strategy for this plan would involve building only 24,000
DTBMs in FY 2008, 51,000 in FY 2009, and then quantities typically in the
mid-50,000s through FY 2015, at which point production could be increased to
the mid-60,000s. Maintenance levels of DTBM production (as seen in the
current CBM system) would still not be in effect in FY 2017. Option year 4
as well as option year 3 of the current CBM production contract would have
to be exercised because the slow rate of DTBM production would require a
larger initial stockpile of CBMs to carry the system through the transition
period, which would extend past FY 2017. Because of the requirement for
producing CBMs during option year 4 of the C1 contract, funding for mass
duplication of the retrospective titles in FY 2007 would not be available.
Under this plan, only 500 (rather than 650) titles would be mass-duplicated
in FY 2007 at 300 copies each (rather than 350). Thus, the DTB collection
available for circulation from network libraries to patrons at the beginning
of FY 2008 would be considerably smaller than would be the case for Plan 1.
Of course, fewer patrons would have machines capable of using the DTBs.
In Plan 2, actual shortages of CBMs develop during the transition period in
FY 2011 and FY 2012, and a shortage almost develops in FY 2010. It is really
only in FY 2014 that CBM inventories return to the levels required to
support smooth operations, after which a surplus of CBMs develops as in Plan
1. Not enough DTBMs would be available to complete the transition by FY
2017; at that time, there would still be about 83,000 patrons who want DTBMs
but would not have them. The forced availability factor of 5 percent would
still be in effect in FY 2017.
Under Plan 2, purchases of new DTB cartridges would be far less than under
Plan 1 because far fewer would be required to support the reduced number of
patrons who have DTBMs. Mass duplication would begin in FY 2007 just as in
Plan 1, and both DTB cartridges and containers would be reconditioned and
reused in operations, with the same assumptions made about weeding these
materials and reusing them. Cartridge purchase requirements would be more
uniform and lower during the transition period, however, and would increase
through the entire period to about 550,000 in FY 2017.
Like Plan 1, Plan 2 assumes that 2,000 new title masters will be produced
annually for every year in the time period. In Plan 2, however, all titles
would be mass-duplicated in RC format through FY 2015 because so many
patrons would still use only CBMs that RC mass duplication would be
warranted. However, NLS has grave concerns about whether such production
will be technically (or economically) feasible at that juncture due to the
obsolescence of cassette technology.
Volunteers would continue to perform repairs on CBMs during the entire
period, with an assumed reduction of 3 percent per year in capacity, and
would play a longer and more important role than in Plan 1; only in FY 2015
would volunteer CBM repair capacity exceed the need. Also, although
volunteers may perform some DTBM repairs, the model assumes that all repairs
are performed by commercial repairers. Commercial repair capacity for C1s
would be 6,000 in FY 2007, 9,000 in FY 2008, and 12,000 in FY 2009 and
later, and 4,500 for E1s in all years, as assumed for Plan 1. In this case,
however, commercial repair of C1s would have to continue at full capacity
through FY 2014 rather than FY 2011. DTBM repairs would increase over time,
ultimately approaching about 30,000 per year in FY 2017 rather than the
40,000 steady-state level in Plan 1, simply because the entire readership
would still not have DTBMs. The same assumptions about unit prices for all
production factors were used in estimating the costs for Plans 1 and 2.
NLS would prefer to avoid Plan 2. Such a prolonged transition would pose
significant operational risks and delay giving many patrons the benefits of
digital technology for many years.
Rate of transition
The transition of the free national library program from the current analog
cassette-based system to a digital flash memory-based system is a complex
process that will continue to require very careful planning and execution.
It is more complex than the most recent transition from disc to cassette (RD
to RC), because every aspect of the system will change, some aspects more
than others.
NLS's fundamental transition strategy is still to wait for the necessary
further declines in the wholesale unit price of flash memory that will make
implementation economically feasible. But this strategy also includes
execution of all other necessary planning and implementation steps that can
be logically performed before FY 2008.
It is clear that market prices for production factors and technological
evolution may not be the only factors, or even the most important factors,
ultimately constraining the rate at which the transition to a digital
delivery system can proceed. Fiscal limitations could turn out to be the
binding constraint, specifically whether NLS receives all, some, or none of
the supplemental funding requested for the transition. NLS, of course, hopes
to receive all of the requested supplemental funding and to execute the
transition as rapidly as possible, both because service to program patrons
will be improved, and because there are significant risks associated with a
prolonged transition.
Risks of a prolonged transition
While the definition of a "prolonged" transition can be debated, NLS
believes that an implementation plan is prolonged if DTBMs and DTBs cannot
be provided to any patrons who desire them by the end of FY 2011. In all
likelihood, the most important factors that will determine the rate of the
transition will be (1) how fast DTBMs can be manufactured and (2) how fast
customized DTB Flash drive cartridges can be purchased. These rates will be
determined largely by the availability of supplemental funding rather than
the technological capabilities and manufacturing capacities of suppliers.
The risks associated with a prolonged transition to the digital system are
discussed next, in order from most severe to least severe, although all of
the risks warrant concern.
Insufficient CBM inventory. While the program has a surplus of CBMs, it is
possible that a shortage could develop if it becomes necessary to extend the
use of cassettes during a prolonged transition since CBM production cannot
be resumed once it has been terminated. The technology is obsolete, with
very few manufacturers; only one of them makes the NLS CBM, which is built
to custom specifications. An additional constraint is that CBMs must be
produced at approximately current levels (42,000 machines per year) because
this is the manufacturer's minimum economic threshold. However, even if all
requested supplemental funding is obtained, NLS's budget cannot support both
CBM production at these levels and the manufacture of DTBMs, plus the
purchase of DTB cartridges as well. Therefore, CBM production must
effectively cease and DTBM production begin, although there could be overlap
during the last half of FY 2007 and the first half of FY 2008 if option year
4 of the C1 production contract is exercised. If actual production rates of
DTBMs in subsequent years turn out to be significantly lower than planned,
shortfalls in available CBMs could result during the transition period.
Inability to obtain CBM repair parts. Not being able to obtain repair parts
for CBMs as cassette playback machine technology becomes obsolete is another
potential problem. CBM repairs will continue be crucial to the smooth
operation of the program until DTBMs are effectively in place and the
residual inventory of available CBMs becomes so large that they will be
discarded rather than repaired. While the exact year in which this will
occur is not certain, it will be no earlier than the end of the transition
period, however long that may be. NLS, library staff, and volunteer and
commercial repairers maintain inventories of repair parts (total system-wide
inventory for most parts represents about a one-year supply). The current
manufacturer of the CBM produces a number of critical repair parts on the
same assembly line on which the CBM is built. When the CBM line is shut
down, these critical repair parts will no longer be produced. NLS must
therefore procure a lifetime supply of these parts before the line is
stopped. The quantity needed has been projected on the basis of a four- or
five-year transition period. If it runs longer, shortages of these key parts
will develop.
Inability to obtain RC components. Another serious concern with a prolonged
transition is the potential inability to obtain RC components. The
technology is becoming obsolete; worldwide demand for products that use this
technology has declined substantially and that trend will continue. Firms
continue to exit the industry as demand declines, competition becomes more
intense, and profitability declines, thus resulting in fewer sources of
supply and higher cost for buyers.
* Tape. The most serious concern is for the future supply of the
"pancake" audiotape used by NLS book and magazine producers in RC
duplication. Currently all of this critical raw material is purchased from
two firms in Asia, both of which are bankrupt and subsidized by their
government. While the quality of their products is good and their prices are
competitive, their future viability is suspect. Two European firms also
produce pancake tape; one of them is government subsidized (but is
apparently either profitable or at least viable), and the other prices its
tape significantly above the market price. NLS's particular concern is for
the period beyond 2010. At that point, a significant potential exists for
the industry to contract from an oligopoly to a monopoly, at which point
prices could skyrocket, or-not quite as likely-have no producer at all. As
more time passes and worldwide demand drops further, the chance of having no
producer increases.
* Shells. While there is some concern about the future supply of
cassette shells, NLS believes that there is much less risk of supply
interruption and/or higher prices than is the case for cassette tape.
Although only one firm, located in the United States, produces cassette
shells to NLS specifications, industry experts believe that several other
international firms could manufacture these shells at a competitive price.
The current producer has indicated a general willingness to continue
production as long as NLS, whose program consumes about 20 percent of the
firm's output, is in the market for the product. However, production can
continue only as long as the firm's minimum quantity threshold is met. In
this regard, it is noteworthy that this company's total shell production
declined 77 percent between 2000 and 2005.
* Duplicator parts. At least three companies in the United States
offer replacement parts, refurbished parts, and repair services for cassette
duplication equipment. One of them also operates internationally. Several
potential international sources also exist, since the rate of obsolescence
of cassette technology is proceeding more slowly overseas than it is
domestically. NLS believes at this time that a potential shortage of
cassette duplication equipment parts presents less of a risk than for shells
and considerably less than for tape.
Decline in volunteer repair capacity. Volunteers perform most CBM repairs
and have been invaluable over the years. However, both demographic and
structural changes in the telecommunications industry-the source of most of
the volunteer force-as well as the advancing age of many volunteers, are
resulting in a decline in the number of machine repairs that can be
performed by volunteers. With regard to the DTBM, NLS envisions a greatly
reduced need for repairs but more reliance on commercial repairers, although
the plan is for volunteers to perform certain types of repairs; therefore,
NLS is not overly concerned with some decline in volunteer repair capacity.
However, if the transition is prolonged, a decline in volunteer repair
capacity will present a problem and result in an increase in the inventory
of CBMs needing repairs and/or increased costs to NLS by having commercial
repairers compensate for fewer volunteer-performed repairs.
Higher costs for maintaining dual systems. Economies of scale exist in many
types of production. This is also true for the talking book program from the
perspective of both NLS and network libraries. Relatively more resources,
including labor, equipment, and supplies, are required for storing and
circulating multiple types of media and machines than for a single type or
for fewer types. While library distribution operations handling more than
one type of medium and machine can and do share resources (staff working
with both types, common receiving and shipping areas, common information
support systems, etc.), the fewer the types of media and machines managed,
the more cost efficient the operation. With regard to books, it will be
relatively more expensive per copy to produce books in both RC and DTB
formats, because mass-duplicators' fixed costs for job set-ups for
individual titles will be amortized over smaller quantities in production
runs. Thus from both network library and NLS perspectives, it is desirable
to avoid a prolonged transition period in which dual systems must be
maintained.
Negative public relations. The final risk is that many patrons will be
wondering why the transition to digital technology is taking so long. Many
patrons have been following NLS's digital progress in published reports and
expect to receive a player soon after the 2008 launch. In the best-case
scenario, all NLS patrons who wish to have a DTBM will have one by the end
of 2011. If the transition is greatly extended, users waiting for a player
are likely to become increasingly dissatisfied-and to express their
frustration at the delay.
Major steps remaining in the transition
Regardless of whether NLS receives all, some, or none of the supplemental
funding, all of the major remaining steps in the transition plan must be
performed. When-not if-these steps will be performed will be determined by
the actual funding received. Therefore, for the purposes of the discussion,
it was assumed that NLS will receive all supplemental funding as requested
and the dates shown reflect that assumption.
Development of the DTB title master collection. As stated in Section 2, the
goal is to have approximately 20,000 total titles in DTB format ready for
distribution by the end of FY 2008. From FY 2004 onward, all title masters
have been produced in digital format. It is also planned that book
production contractors will perform the entire gamut of DTB title master
preparation including the narration of audio content in .wav format,
production and insertion of XML files into the raw audio files, application
of the AMR-WB+ compression codec, encryption of the encoded files using the
NIST Advanced Encryption Standard, and creation of image format files for
the title masters. Approximately 2,000 new titles per year will be produced
in DTB format during this period, and 1,500 to 1,600 analog (RC format)
titles per year will be converted to DTB format. Annual production of new
DTB titles beyond FY 2008 will be 1,300-1,700 per year, while the number of
analog-to-digital conversions that will be performed is unknown. Period of
performance: October 2002 and continuing.
Pilot tests of Internet delivery. The pilot testing of Internet delivery for
magazines has already provided useful information for implementation
planning and will continue with the same offerings-U.S. News & World Report,
Smart Computing in Plain English, and People. Magazines will continue to be
segmented at the article level to facilitate downloads by non-broadband
channels and to have navigation aids included. The format in which they are
available, however, will shortly be changed from MP3 to AMR-WB+ and will be
encrypted using the new protection scheme. This will require NLS to
distribute player software capable of handling the new codec and protection
schema. Sometime during 2007, NLS is planning to offer patrons DTBs for
Internet download; these will in fact precede the offering of DTBs on flash
memory cartridges via USPS delivery. Period of performance: October 2003 and
continuing.
DTBM, DTB, and container design contract. The DTBM, DTB, and container are
being designed, and the current objective is to have prototypes and design
specifications for all of these products by the end of May 2007. A series of
usability tests has demonstrated that the designs developed for the player
and cartridge will be successful, but additional design work is needed on
the mailing container. The next major step in this contract will be to
develop and test functional prototypes for each product in August 2006; this
will be followed by preproduction (beta) testing in February 2007. NLS
quality assurance test plans for these products will be developed
concurrently and applied to both design and preproduction prototypes;
usability tests will also be performed. Moreover, environmental and
certification testing will be performed on both versions. For the DTBM, the
contractor will also perform a repair/dispose analysis and develop a machine
diagnosis system and procedures for repair, a software support system, and
training materials for repairers. Design analyses for manufacturability will
be performed, incorporating the feedback from potential suppliers in the
presolicitation process. The final design will then be transferred to mass
production, and the contractor will provide support to the DTBM manufacturer
during the initial months of mass production in late FY 2007 and early FY
2008. All technical documentation for the products will be transferred from
the design contractor to the manufacturer. Continuing support in the form of
assistance with ordering and installation of production tooling, development
of the production supply chain and quality assurance system, and validation
of the first mass-produced units will be provided by the design contractor.
Period of performance: November 2005-November 2007)
RD phase-out. NLS will recommend that all RD collections be transferred from
network libraries to NLS before the first mass-duplicated DTBs are received.
(This will be discretionary on the part of network libraries.) Perhaps
one-third of network libraries have already removed their RD collections.
Beginning sometime before FY 2008, it will be feasible to support all
remaining RD circulation from the MSCs. Some copies of RDs for certain
titles may be discarded by NLS or locally. Very few patrons will be affected
by this move; RD readership in the program was down to 12,660 individuals
and 1,577 institutions in FY 2004, and RD circulation services to them will
continue to be provided by MSCs. By FY 2007, there will be very few RDs and
RD-only readers. Period of performance: October 2004-end of FY 2007)
Redesign of library information systems. Several separate efforts will be
required to design, develop, and modify the information systems that are
used for RC circulation and CBM control and will also be used for DTB
circulation and DTBM control. Various information systems, including the
three multilibrary systems (READS-Reader Enrollment and Delivery
System-KLAS, and CUL) and two independent systems used by large regional
libraries, must be modified to support the distribution of DTBs. NLS will
assume the responsibility for modifying READS, but individual libraries and
groups of libraries will be responsible for modifying the independent and
multilibrary systems, respectively. Information systems must be modified to
facilitate library-based distribution of DTBs. These modifications may
involve one step, but two are more likely; the first involves the
development of the information system functionality required to support
library-based distribution (required by the beginning of FY 2008), and the
second will facilitate possible future DOD center-based distribution. Period
of performance: FY 2007 and continuing.
Implementation of library information systems. Implementation will probably
be performed both by the contractors who modified the systems and by network
library information technology staff who are responsible for their
operation. In this step, or steps, all components will be installed, tested,
and verified onsite. This implementation may be performed in two steps as
described in the preceding paragraph. Period of performance: FY 2007 and
continuing.
Production, allocation, and distribution of DTBMs. NLS aims to have more
than 180,000 DTBMs in use by the end of FY 2008. Most will be the basic
model. If the full supplemental appropriation is obtained, NLS intends to
produce DTBMs at a rate of about 120,000 to 140,000 machines per year during
the transition years (2008-2011) and then produce them at a much lower rate
(probably about 30,000 per year) to compensate for attrition. The
procurement process has actually begun; the presolicitation
information-gathering process began in early FY 2006. It involves
identifying potential producers of DTBMs and obtaining their ideas on the
manufacturability of the DTBM prototypes and incorporating them into the
design. Sometime during FY 2007, a manufacturer will be awarded a production
contract, create the necessary manufacturing tooling, establish the assembly
line, and begin mass-producing DTBMs. As the product moves into production,
the manufacturer will work closely with the design contractor for several
months at the end of FY 2007 and the beginning of FY 2008. NLS will have a
manufacturer's warranty of some type on the DTBM; as a performance history
is accumulated, the most favorable warranty terms for NLS will be identified
and implemented. New DTBMs will be allocated to network libraries on the
basis of readership (the current policy for allocating CBMs). Program rules
require that veterans be offered DTBMs before other patrons. After veterans,
the current plan is to offer DTBMs to "early adopters" of new technology and
to younger readers; this approach will be further evaluated in the DTB
Distribution Study and by DLTPG. Period of performance: Early FY 2008 and
continuing.
Production of flash drive cartridges. The mass production of flash drive
cartridges customized to NLS specifications in accordance with the final
design for the DTB will begin during this step. The customized features of
the cartridge will be the shell and the controller chip, which will prevent
unauthorized overwriting of the contents. Production tooling must first be
designed to manufacture these custom components, then they are assembled and
tested; at that point, mass production can commence. In this manner, NLS
will be able to obtain the best prices for the cartridges via quantity
discounts. This step will, in all likelihood, not begin until the wholesale
unit price of 256-MB Flash drives declines to below $10, and production will
be limited at this price. As the price declines further, production will be
increased, gradually rising to the level required to support steady-state
operation of mass duplication and possibly limited hybrid distribution.
Period of performance: FY 2007 and continuing.
Production of DTB containers. This step will see the mass production of DTB
mailing/storage containers. Both network library operations and future DOD
center operations may use the same container, or variations may be advisable
because of operational requirements or the need to provide some way for
patrons to differentiate between library and DOD center containers. A
durable, reusable mailing envelope is also being considered for DOD center
operations, although a container will more likely be used. In any event, the
design of production tooling will occur in mid-FY 2007, with building,
installation, and testing during the rest of FY 2007. NLS plans to
recondition and reuse DTB containers, a process that is both economical and
environmentally friendly. Period of performance: FY 2007 and continuing.
Mass duplication of DTBs. As recommended in the first phase of the DTB
Distribution Study, mass duplication of DTBs must await further declines in
the wholesale unit price of 256-MB Flash drive cartridges to be economically
feasible; this is expected to take place by the beginning of FY 2008. NLS
contacted potential mass-duplication contractors early in 2006 to inform
them of production tools and processes required for the mass duplication of
DTBs; the development of the tools and processes will occur during FY 2006
and FY 2007. Since only a minority of patrons will have DTBMs initially, the
issue of how many copies per title should be produced is being addressed in
the DTB Distribution Study. There is probably some minimum threshold for the
mass duplication of DTBs; however, there is some reason to believe that it
may be below that for RCs. Full-quantity production of DTBs for
mass-duplicated titles will not begin until all, or almost all, patrons have
DTBMs. Period of performance: end of FY 2007 and continuing.
Reduction of CBM inventory. After the transition period begins, CBM
inventories will gradually drop as DTBMs generally replace CBMs over about
four years. New CBM production will cease about early in 2007. After CBM
production ceases, inventory will be gradually reduced by normal attrition
through loss and damage. However, after DTBMs have been completely phased in
and used for several years, there will ultimately be an inventory of CBMs
beyond the number needed to support the reading of magazines, RC titles not
converted to digital format, and patrons who still prefer RCs/CBMs to
DTBs/DTBMs. NLS will determine the most appropriate disposition of this
excess inventory. Period of performance: FY 2007 or FY 2008 and continuing.
Development of the DTBM repair infrastructure. During the first half of FY
2008, NLS will evaluate DTBM repair processes and parts needs. As patrons
begin to use DTBMs and manufacturers and NLS have time to perform various
types of testing on production units, data on the machine's longevity,
reliability, and maintainability will accumulate. The types and frequencies
of failures will be analyzed to improve product quality, determine the best
warranty strategy, and develop the infrastructure for repairing DTBMs. Most
types of repairs can and will be performed by volunteers, while others may
be performed exclusively by commercial repairers. Testing and repair
procedures will be developed by NLS and communicated to library staff,
volunteers, and commercial repairers; disposal criteria and procedures will
also be developed and explained. Parts procurement requirements will be
determined, and procurement will begin during FY 2009; because the DTBMs
will carry a manufacturer's warranty of at least 6 months if not 1 year or
longer, this schedule is viable. It is envisioned that the parts logistics
system will be very similar to the one for CBM repair-centralized
procurement and storage of parts by NLS, distribution of parts to repair
locations, and maintenance of smaller inventories of parts onsite at repair
locations. Repairers will also be trained. Commercial repairers may need to
be brought online to perform repairs not handled by volunteers and library
staff. Period of performance: FY 2008 and continuing.
Phase-out of RC mass production. As DTBs and DTBMs come online, the issue of
how many RC copies per title should be mass-produced must be resolved. Once
the transition period begins and for approximately the next two years, most
patrons will still have only CBMs and hence will need RCs. However, after
that, most patrons will have DTBMs, and the predominant medium will be the
DTB. At some time shortly thereafter, the demand for RCs will fall to a
point at which the economic threshold for mass duplication of RCs is
reached, and production of new RC titles will cease. It will simply be too
expensive per copy to produce such small numbers. This is consistent with a
stated DLTPG objective: not to sacrifice the total number of titles in order
to produce large numbers of copies in one or both formats. The DTB
Distribution Study is addressing this matter, with analyses being performed
to determine the most appropriate phase-out plan. Period of performance: FY
2008 and continuing.
DOD implementation. As recommended in the DTB Distribution Study, NLS may
implement DTB distribution by DOD centers after beginning with mass
duplication for library-based distribution, the logic being to await further
refinements of duplication technology automation for NLS-customized flash
drives and to allow time for information system modifications. DOD centers
would be established, set up, and begin operations during this step. There
might be only one center initially, but a second might also be established
shortly afterward. Having two centers will reduce the risk associated with
disruption of operations, and shorten delivery time somewhat for DOD books.
During this step, network libraries and their contractors will be performing
any modifications necessary to accommodate DOD-based distribution. The
information system for the DOD center would be developed, a contractor
selected to operate the center, the facility (including equipment and
information system installation) set up, and both component and integrated
systems testing performed. Pilot testing would then take place between the
DOD center and one designated library for each of the five library
information systems in use. After successful testing has been completed, the
center would go online. It should be noted, however, that DOD center-based
distribution may, in fact, never be implemented if the cost of flash memory
cartridges falls far enough in the years following FY 2008. Period of
performance: FY 2008 and continuing.
Weeding of RC collections. RC collections in network libraries will be
weeded before, during, and after the transition to DTBs. As demand for
individual RC titles drops, excess copies will be removed from network
library collection storage. This trend will accelerate for those titles also
available in DTB format. Some of these weeded copies may be disposed of or
redistributed to other libraries via the NLS XESS system. Any containers
will be reconditioned and reused. Period of performance: Ongoing)
Weeding of DTB collections. Weeding of DTB copies in library collections
will also occur as demand for titles decreases with age. Analyses have shown
that the first significant weeding can take place after a title has been in
circulation for three years; another pronounced drop in demand with an
associated potential for weeding occurs after about six years in
circulation. Excess copies will be sent to DTB mass-duplication contractors
for reuse, to other libraries that need copies of the titles, or to DOD
centers for reuse. This step will probably not begin until all patrons have
DTBMs. Period of performance: FY 2011 and continuing.
Appendices
Link to a listing of appendices.
<http://www.loc.gov/nls/businessplan/index.html>
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Posted on 2006-11-02
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