[Home-on-the-Range] Martha's daughter's contact informationFW: Jackie Dwyer contact information

Wed Nov 20 13:19:38 UTC 2024

Hi Everyone,

I have been asked for Martha's daughter's contact information so we can send
cards.

Here it is:

Stop us if you've heard this before: Nvidia's
 earnings report Wednesday night is big deal on Wall Street.

Results from the world's most valuable chipmaker will give investors the
clearest look into the state of the AI boom since ... the last time the
company reported its financials in late August.

Enthusiasm about AI has been a major driver of stock market gains over the
past two years - ever since the launch of ChatGPT kicked off an investment
surge that has lifted far more than just technology companies. The winner's
circle has grown to include industrials, such as those making electrical
components and energy-generation equipment, and even stodgy utilities that
are expected to benefit from increased data center power consumption.

Still, no company is more synonymous with AI than Nvidia, which holds a
dominant position in the market for cutting-edge processors that underpin
applications like ChatGPT. Its sales, profits and market capitalization have
soared as a result. It has also created a dynamic where the company's
quarterly earnings reports are treated like make-or-break events, with
seemingly boundless anticipation pushing the stock up into the release. That
is how Nvidia's better-than-expected results and solid outlook in August can
still be followed by a nearly 20% decline in a little over a week. Then the
buyers, deeming the swoon excessive, stepped back in and a new rally
commenced.

It is still underway as of Tuesday. Nvidia shares are up almost 40% since
their most recent bottom, on Sept. 6. Along the way, Nvidia dethroned Apple
 as the world's most valuable company, and it has not looked back. Now it's
earnings time again. The curse of sky-high expectations threatens to strike
once more.

"I say own it, don't trade it," Jim Cramer said Tuesday, as he tried to peer
through the thicket of hype and stay focused on Nvidia's bright multiyear
outlook. He bestowed that "own it" designation on just two stocks, Nvidia
and Apple. "There's two things you need to know about Nvidia," Jim
continued. "One is that they have incredible demand, far more than they can
handle. ... And secondly, there's no competition because no one is even
remotely near them, including [fellow Club holding] AMD
, which is a company I like very, very much."

Here's a closer look at a few key questions surrounding Nvidia's fiscal 2025
third-quarter report and the subsequent conference call at 5 p.m. ET.

Overheated or overdone?
Investors want to know whether the rollout of Nvidia's next-generation AI
chip platform Blackwell has hit any snags - specifically, whether a recent
media report about Blackwell overheating in a certain configuration could
result in a slower-than-expected ramp in revenue as the company and its
customers work out a solution. Nvidia shares were lower Monday on the news.

Few are doubting CEO Jensen Huang's description of Blackwell demand as
"insane." The uncertainty, at this point, is about the timing. Nvidia has
said it expects to ship "several billion dollars" in Blackwell sales in the
current quarter, which stretches from November to January. Analysts
currently project companywide revenue of $37.04 billion in the January
quarter, according to FactSet. Nvidia's guidance is critical in shaping Wall
Street's reaction to quarterly results, and it will be no different this
time around.

"If there was another company that was about to sneak up and was nibbling at
them, then [Blackwell pushouts] would be a problem," Jim said. "But there
isn't, so I don't see anything to fret about, other than the fact I'm going
to be ready for when they say, 'Listen, we're not going to ramp it in
January. We're going to ramp it in April.' If there are people who are
unhappy with that and want to sell it, then we've got to be ready."

In a note to clients Tuesday, analysts at Truist Securities acknowledged
there could be technical and supply chain challenges facing Blackwell.
Still, analysts said everything they're hearing from Nvidia, its partners
and industry contacts feels "overwhelmingly positive."

"While we expect to hear Blackwell called out as a revenue generator in both
CQ3 and ramping in CQ4, we believe any slippage in Blackwell will likely be
replaced with Hopper, offering downside protection on revenue," analysts
wrote. Hopper is the name of Nvidia's current-generation AI chips, the H100
and H200.

Margin health?
Nvidia's triple-digit revenue growth in recent quarters is widely expected
to moderate due to the law of large numbers. As a result, gross margins are
an increasingly important part of the investment story. Indeed, Nvidia's
third-quarter guidance for gross margin - and its implications for the
fourth-quarter figure - was considered one of the very few blemishes in the
August quarterly report.

"Keep an eye on GM [gross margin]," analysts at Bank of America told clients
in a note Sunday. Analysts said Nvidia needs to report something in the 73%
to 74% range to keep its earnings per share for fiscal 2026 on track to
reach the bull case of $5 or more.

Here's how to calculate gross margin: Start with a company's revenue then
subtract the costs of that revenue. That number is known as gross profit, or
gross income. Gross profit divided by sales multiplied by 100 establishes
the gross margin percentage. In Nvidia's most-recent quarter, its gross
margin was 75.7%.

The rollout of Blackwell, even before chatter emerged about potential heat
challenges, was understood as one factor pressuring margins in the near
term.

"Looking ahead to FY26, we see margins declining to the low 70s as Blackwell
ramps with initially lower [production] yields," Susquehanna analysts wrote
in a Nov. 14 note. "In short, we expect another strong report but note
elevated expectations into the print, with the narrative around the
Blackwell ramp and GMs important to driving further upside in the stock."

Sovereign and software strength?
What do Japan, Indonesia, India and Denmark all have in common? For our
purposes, at least, they're places that Nvidia's Huang has visited in recent
weeks to tout AI and discuss country-specific initiatives that the company
is involved in. The trips and announcements are all part of Nvidia's broader
strategy on sovereign AI - a concept that refers to a country having control
over its computing infrastructure and data in order to develop AI solutions
that incorporate their own solutions.

Nvidia said in August that it expected sovereign AI to generate low
double-digit billions worth of revenue this fiscal year. Any updates to that
projection would be welcome and help investors understand the demand coming
from this burgeoning group of customers.

U.S. tech giants like Microsoft
, Meta Platforms
 and Amazon
 indicated in their recent earnings reports that they're continuing to spend
billions of dollars on AI computing infrastructure - no doubt, that's great
news for Nvidia. Sovereign AI represents a different kind of avenue for
growth in the years ahead.

Similarly, software is another longer-term bet that can help Nvidia offset
some of the inherent cyclicality in hardware sales. In a note to clients
Monday, analysts at Evercore ISI said that in addition to overall guidance,
investors will likely be interested in Nvidia's software growth - and
specifically, its offering called AI Enterprise, which provides a range of
tools to companies. In August, CFO Colette Kress said Nvidia was on track to
finish the year at a roughly $2 billion annual run rate for software and
support revenue. AI Enterprise "notably" contributed to the software
expansion, according to Kress.

-----Original Message-----
From: Jackie Dwyer <jackiept89 at icloud.com> 
Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2024 8:47 PM
To: Susie Stanzel <slstanzel at kc.rr.com>
Subject: Jackie Dwyer contact information 

Jackie Dwyer 
12484 S Hallet St
Olathe, KS 66062
913-205-7541
jackiept89 at me.com
Sent from my iPhone