[nagdu] How long is "successful"

Fri Jun 7 23:04:31 UTC 2013

Tracy,

I think I see where you're going. I'm seeing the bell curve as an end 
result... Though Robert H. is much more thorough in his discussion of 
that. /smile/

Having some sort of comparison with team longevity as one indicator of 
success would be a useful thing for me. It is something that can be 
measured and run through a statistical analysis for purposes of 
comparison, as well. So if the mean figure for School X is 5.4 years 
while the mean figure for School Y is 6.7 years, that is something I 
would factor in to a decision between Schools X and Y, seeing the higher 
mean as an indicator that my own odds of having a long-lived match.

I would think of that in terms of my expectations of having a successful 
match, I suppose. I would also be interested in how many people start 
class vs. how many finish to factor in, as well. I would also like to 
know how many careers ended through illness vs. injury vs. whatever 
other causes, I suppose.

The other more personal factors people have mentioned are important, but 
I agree with you that they do not lend themselves well to quantification 
because they are more subjective.

As for an overall definition of success... This discussion is 
interesting as I learn how others think of their own guides and teamwork 
in those terms. I tend to figure that if we go out and get home and are 
alive to tell about it, that's a good sign. We generally have fun, both 
of us, which is also nice. In other words, we stay safe and she enhances 
my travel and activities. She's a poodle, so sometimes she is a PITA, 
but those same traits make her great for adventuring, so I guess I can 
accept the quirks. /smile/

Tami

On 06/07/2013 10:19 AM, Tracy Carcione wrote:
> I think we're mixing up personal success with statistical success.  I'd
> agree that, on a personal level, getting your dog to do what you want
> with a minimum of effort, and being safe together, constitutes success.
> But how do you measure that, if you want broad statistics?  The only way
> I can think of is to see how long the team stays together.  There will
> be outliers--people who retired a dog young because of an attack, for
> instance, but it's the only way I can figure to measure what I want to
> measure. If someone has a better idea, I'd love to hear it.
> Now, maybe you don't care.  You're happy with your dog and your school,
> and that's all that counts.  I can dig that.  But I'd also like some
> level of assurance that, when I go to class, I have the best chance of
> getting a dog I can work with for a long time.  Right now, all a person
> can do is talk to other people from their school of choice and see how
> they've done.  I just wonder if there isn't some more objective measure
> that could be added into the mix, to give the prospective student
> another way to compare schools, and to show schools if their training is
> working as well as they would like. After all, the hospital I work for
> analyzes data on bad outcomes, so we can do better.
> Tracy
> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Larry D. Keeler" <lkeeler at comcast.net>
> To: "NAGDU Mailing List,the National Association of Guide Dog Users"
> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 12:42 PM
> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>
>
>> Well, the point is that in my neighborhood, I know where those small
>> curbs are at. She does stop at the big ones and whenever there are
>> obstacles in the way. But, for me, the little ones where I live are
>> not that important so I don't get on Holly to do them. I could have
>> but its really not that important. Some folks might not consider that
>> successful but, i don't really mind. I do  care if obstacles are there
>> and if she didn't stop for them! Some folks will tolerate there dogs
>> eating things they shouldn't or sniffing other folks for example. What
>> I consider successful is that if I want Holly to do something, I can
>> get her to do it with a minimum of fuss. If I want her to stop at
>> those little curbs, she will! And, if we are somewhere that I don't
>> know, she will anyway. I guess success for me is knowing what your dog
>> will do when you do something and what your dog knows you will do!
>> And, if your dog listens to your commands and you listen to the dog.
>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Star Gazer"
>> <pickrellrebecca at gmail.com>
>> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List,the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 11:25 AM
>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>
>>
>>> Larry,
>>> Your post about your dog not stopping at curbs as a good example of how
>>> difficult this is to deal with.
>>> Reading your post, I was thinking "I couldn't deal with that
>>> behavior". Y
>>> Ou feel differently. You love your dog. You and she have a history. I
>>> don't
>>> know your dog, and have no history with her.
>>> I'm wondering if the statistics used on marriage and divorce rates would
>>> serve as a good model?
>>> We all know people who have been married for 60 years and are miserable.
>>> Yet, for all kinds of reasons they stay married.
>>> Likewise, we all know marriages that ended quickly for any number of
>>> reasons.
>>> And as with dogs, we all have a friend where we think "How does she
>>> put up
>>> with *that*".
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Larry D.
>>> Keeler
>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 11:19 AM
>>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>
>>> Aggreed! My point is that too many variables exist to have a perfect
>>> team.
>>> You have to use some kind of continuum scale to measure. And, what
>>> success
>>> if for one is not the same as it is for another. If you use saftey as
>>> you're
>>> standard most folks I know at least have that covered.
>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>> From: "Margo and Arrow" <margo.downey at verizon.net>
>>> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
>>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 10:53 AM
>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>
>>>
>>>> Well, I'd say that even if a team works for one month and does well,
>>>> they're successful.  I say this because after one gets home, things
>>>> could happen.
>>>> Dogs get sick, humans get sick, dogs die, humans die, circumstances
>>>> change, etc., etc., etc.
>>>>
>>>> I just don't think we can put too much of a figure on it.  I figure,
>>>> though, one can begin to tell how successful a team is after they get
>>>> home and work a bit.  One can also tell during class if a team might
>>>> be successful or not.
>>>>
>>>> Margoa nd Arrow
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy
>>>> Carcione
>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 8:04 AM
>>>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>>>> Subject: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>
>>>> Darla asked how long a team has to be out to be "successful".  I'd say
>>>> at least 2 years, just to put a number on it.  Or possibly 3; I could
>>>> argue either way.
>>>> I'd be real curious to see numbers from schools of teams graduated,
>>>> and partnerships that lasted 3 years or more. I think that should be a
>>>> pretty good indicator as to how well the school is doing. I mean, if
>>>> school X put out 500 teams, and 300 of them stayed together, that's
>>>> only a 60% success rate, and not so good.  But if 400 of them worked 3
>>>> years or more, that's 80% success, which is pretty good.
>>>> Tracy
>>>>
>>>>
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