[Nfbf-l] An High Speed Transit, an opposing point of view!

[Kirk]

Just passing this along for all concerned! KH

      Dear CNUers,


      Who I represent: I am an advocate of TOD, energy conservation, and 
transportation choices.  I have an international background and futuristic 
point-of-view most architecture graduates also have.


      My experience: I started doing research on TODs since 2002 when 
studying my Master's degree of Urban Planning, Master's degree of 
Transportation Engineering, and Graduate Certificate of GIS at University of 
Florida.  In year 2005, I finished my thesis and my feasibility study of 
TODs using case study in Atlanta, GA.


      The points I support Governor Rick Scott:
      1. Right Attitude of doing a responsible feasibility study of such 
projects which use both federal funding and local tax base for a period from 
building the projects to operating and maintaining such projects. If every 
sates use their money not so carefully, an unavoidable inflation rate of US 
dollar is on the verge.
      2. Right Method of a feasibility study from a business perspective. 
Internal Revenue Return(IRR) is key to the foreseeable success or failure of 
a project for business people, developers and investors. Everything has to 
be nailed down on contracts for business.  Planners' feasibility analysis 
are usually done by looking at the costs and funding sources.  However, 
financing a project with different interest parties are different stories.
      3. Right Time of raising the issue when 2012 budget is on the table. 
Such government projects require different administrative departments' 
cooperation. Public safety issues along the rail and train stations only 
need more law enforcement staff at state and local agencies.
      4. Right vision of the projects.  Disney and theme parks are magnets 
in Orlando.  Homes for retirees and families on the gulf coast are 
attractive for both locals and future migrants from other states after 
baby-boomers reach 65 years of age.  This project between Tampa and Orlando 
may not encourage mixed land-use TOD wants.  Such interaction between rail 
connection and land-use would actually encourage more urban sprawl by 
further pulling residential and commercial/retail/entertainment land-use 
apart to the 2 ends.  In another word, this project would exaggerate the 
trend of turing Tampa bay/Clearwater to be a bedroom community adjacent to 
an emerging entertaining "downtown" of Tampa -- southwest Orange County and 
Kissimmee.



      My suggestions:
      1. Feasibility study of such projects is more interesting or more 
complicated than most development, because the revenue of such projects 
should also include the increase of property values brought from the 
connection to the rail.  The revenue is not only calculated by ridership 
only.
      2. Increase of property values brought from the connection to the rail 
could be calculated at both census-tract level and property-parcel level. 
When I was doing case study at Atlanta, GA, different results could be 
reached from 2 different data sets after I put data into GIS model.  So how 
much money or benefits this project could bring requires more considerations 
on what kind data the model is going to use.
      3. Prediction models between land-use mix index and ridership/ 
property value are usually done by regression analysis.  Linear and 
Un-linear regression models would bring quite different indicators and model 
functions.
      4. A better vision is a rail project between Miami /Fort Lauderdale 
Metropolitan area and Central Florida.  This is a much better model that 
would encourage better land-use mix, energy conservation for a round-trip of 
10 hours or more on highway, and ridership on the rail.




      Sincerely,
      Shao-Ming Zhang
      M.S. in Transportation Engineering 2008
      M.A.U.R.P. 2005
      ICGIS 2005
      B. Architecture 2002


      Smart City Consultants,
      Mobile: 407.722.0226




Kirk Harmon
President & CEO
Florida Disabled Citizens
for Progress
P.O.Box 61794
Jacksonville, FL 32236
PH(904) 783-9896
Cell: (407) 473-2176
DAV/BVA
Life Member

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