[nfbmi-talk] FW: [msb-alumni] Self-driving cars to fill roads by 2030, study predicts

Fred Wurtzel f.wurtzel at att.net
Thu Jan 9 01:16:30 UTC 2014



From: msb-alumni-bounce at freelists.org
[mailto:msb-alumni-bounce at freelists.org] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Wednesday, January 08, 2014 3:08 PM
To: msb-alumni at freelists.org
Subject: [msb-alumni] Self-driving cars to fill roads by 2030, study


It better be before that, I want to be driving before I'm 70.





Self-driving cars to fill roads by 2030, study predicts By Chris Woodyard,
USA TODAY The number of self-driving cars on the world's roads -- including
those that require some driver input -- will balloon from 230,000 in 2025 to
11.8 million by 2030, a study predicts. As sales pick up, there could be a
cumulative 54 million self-driving cars in use around the world in 2035,
says consultant IHS Automotive. It's no longer a question of whether such
cars will be built, but how soon and how many. Virtually all major
automakers are working on self-driving technologies. The experiments started
with tech giant Google and have spread. The IHS report comes as the
International Consumer Electronics Show sets up shop in Las Vegas. Audi and
Toyota unveiled self-driving technologies at the show last year, and more
examples are expected. By 2050, IHS predicts, nearly all vehicles -- private
and commercial -- will be self-driving cars (SDCs). And as more hit the
road, the roads will be safer, it says. "As the market share of SDCs on the
highway grows, overall accident rates will decline steadily," says Egil
Juliussen, principal analyst for autonomous driver-assisted systems at IHS
Automotive who co-authored the study with IHS senior analyst Jeremy Carlson.
"Traffic congestion and air pollution per car should also decline because
SDCs can be programmed to be more efficient in their driving patterns. About
three out of 10 SDCs sold will be in North America over that period, IHS
says. Many cars already have precursor technologies needed for self-driving,
such as lane-keeping assist and automated braking. IHS says the first wave
of self-driving cars will be limited to capabilities similar to autopilot
systems on planes -- the cars take over in relatively safe driving
conditions, such as open highway. Later in the 2020s, more sophisticated
systems to handle more complex conditions will come to market. Self-driving
cars will come at a steep price, adding $7,000 to $10,000 to a car's sticker
in 2025, the study says. The price premium should steadily drop, to $5,000
in 2030 and about $3,000 in 2035. There will be two big barriers to
development: software reliability and cybersecurity. Also, the government
will play a key role by setting the rules that will oversee deployment.


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