[Nfbmo] Job automation and the fully autonomous vehicle was RE: California tells Uber to shut down 'illegal' self-driving car ...
Gary Wunder
gwunder at earthlink.net
Mon Jan 2 13:29:38 UTC 2017
Hello, Daniel. Indeed some folks in the 1970s did believe that energy put
into the Kurzweil reading machine was wasted. They started with its purchase
price of $50,000 and asked how anyone could take seriously a machine that
cost so much. They reason that a machine could never take the place of a
live reader, and at this point I think that there is still some merit to
their argument. They questioned whether the machine would ever be simple
enough that the average blind person could learn to run it, and some folks
even questioned whether there was enough print to make an investment of any
kind very practical.
It is good that we don't get blown away by every piece of technology offered
to us, but it is also important that we give that technology time to mature,
consider what benefits it may bring that we haven't thought about, and
remain open to the possibility that we might enjoy a richer world because of
it.
-----Original Message-----
From: Nfbmo [mailto:nfbmo-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Daniel Garcia via
Nfbmo
Sent: Thursday, December 29, 2016 3:12 PM
To: NFB of Missouri Mailing List
Cc: Daniel Garcia
Subject: [Nfbmo] Job automation and the fully autonomous vehicle was RE:
California tells Uber to shut down 'illegal' self-driving car ...
Not even the Federal Government is immune from the pressure to work more
efficiently. Though President-Elect Trump talks about running the government
more like a business, the fact is that his administration will only continue
a trend that has been started by his predecessors. Starting next week,
taxpayers wishing to set up monthly payment agreements with the IRS will
save a lot of money in fees if they do so online, especially if they agree
to a direct debit agreement. Not everyone will qualify for the online
payment agreement though. Those of us who make a living answering the phone
will have more time to focus on the more complicated cases. This will, in
theory, reduce the hold time that people experience just to talk with a
representative.
The coming of the fully autonomous vehicle will cause many entrepreneurs to
come up with dozens or even hundreds of new business models we cannot even
conceive of now. Imagine, for example, that after you get out of work your
dinner is waiting for you in your car. By the time you arrive home, you are
done with dinner. The car then drives itself to the restaurant or caterer
where they take care of the dishes. Or imagine that while you are at work,
your car goes to the grocery store where employees load up the grocery items
you ordered the previous night. After you get home, all you have to do is
just put the groceries away. No longer will you have to waste your precious
time doing grocery shopping. The fully autonomous vehicle will allow
professionals of all kinds to be more mobile in the same way the mobile
phone did.
I am wondering if in the 1970's Federationists and the blind community in
general were split on the question of the Kurzweil reading machine . Did
some people argue that the NFB ought not waste money on it and that the
focus should be instead on making sure blind people have live human readers
and accessible reading material?
In short, the future will bring with it both peril and opportunity for new
things. We can choose to fear it or we can choose to shape it.
Regards
Daniel Garcia
-----Original Message-----
From: Nfbmo [mailto:nfbmo-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Gary Wunder via
Nfbmo
Sent: Thursday, December 29, 2016 6:32 AM
To: 'NFB of Missouri Mailing List'
Cc: Gary Wunder
Subject: Re: [Nfbmo] California tells Uber to shut down 'illegal'
self-driving car ...
Hello, Dan. You are one of the most intelligent and articulate people I
know, so getting the pleasure of exchanging views with you is one I savor.
One of the difficulties human beings have always had is to figure out how we
are unique in the universe or at least how we are unique on our own planet.
I have no doubt that when the lever was introduced, someone talked about the
perils of using something that would multiply human strength in the way that
the lever could. In one respect they were right: when we started lifting
things that were beyond our ability to lift without the lever, and when we
got them high enough that falling back to earth could crush someone, people
inevitably died. Death due to accident is always tragic, but seldom does it
stop us from doing productive work.
One problem we have had in teaching computers new activities is getting the
people who understand how to do those to sit down with us and explain how
they do what they do. All of us believe that, in addition to the logical
steps we take to accomplish a task, there are intuitive things we cannot
define - I just know it when I know it. So, if you asked me to have a
computer write the response that I am writing to you right now, I would tell
you that it is a uniquely human experience relying on some scientific
principles to know how to write and to some emotional experiences to know
how to come up with the points that I write and how best to articulate them.
I think that self-driving cars have a great deal to recommend them. They
will not be run on Windows 10, and operating system designed to run hundreds
of thousands of different programs. They will be run on a computer
specifically designed to handle the functions of driving, just as the
autopilot systems and other computers necessary to flight are run on
specifically designed computers and software. They will be tested with as
many scenarios as we can get human drivers to identify. Once we teach them
how to handle those scenarios, they will not be distracted by planning the
meeting they are late for, thinking about how they must hurry through work
to get to their child's Little League game, checking to see if they have
correctly applied their makeup in the mirror, or being distracted by noise
in the back seat.
Will computers make some mistakes that cost lives? Of course they will, and
when they do, there will be a significant outcry from those who believe that
computers should not be driving. It is the same kind of outcry we hear now
when we say that people who are under the influence of drugs or alcohol
should not be driving. It is the same kind of cry we hear when a young
person is involved in an accident, and we say that more experience should be
required before we let young people drive. We feel the same sadness and
outrage when we hear about an accident in which a child is killed by a
ninety-five-year-old driver, our first thought being that he probably has
been driving long beyond the time when it is safe for him to do so. When we
see accidents happening in a specific area and can identify why, even then
they must meet a threshold before we will address them, so, like it or not,
while we value human life, we do put a price on what we will spend to save
it.
I have great sympathy for the argument you offer about technology being used
to displace people. You and I share many of the same views about the need
for quality jobs and the importance of an active labor movement to see that
human beings are not viewed as just another ingredient in a salable
commodity, one that we should get for as little money as possible. But the
issue of the self-driving vehicle goes way beyond Uber or Lyft. If we
develop computer technology as we should, doesn't it make sense to assign a
machine to do something that requires intense concentration and has no
susceptibility to distraction? Wouldn't it be wonderful if your ride to work
could be accompanied by an audiobook to which you could relax, reviewing an
agenda for that morning's meeting, or writing a letter to uncle Charlie, a
man you love but whom you give far little attention in the day-to-day grind.
Or, wouldn't it be great if you could pretend to be a Northwest pilot and
sleep while transporting your passengers?
I do believe that I am just as willing to trust my life to well-designed
hardware and rigorously tested programs as I am to some of my relatives
whose rides are herky-jerky and whose attention often seems to be elsewhere.
I hope to see a time when people the age of my mother-in-law will no longer
feel imprisoned because she can no longer drive and who believes that by
removing driving we have taken away a major part of her adulthood.
Just to close out what may be a rather controversial letter, I believe that
the uniqueness of the human being is not found in what rides above our
shoulders but in the sole. We're going to have to figure out meaningful jobs
for human beings when we replace those that we can with machines. Standing
in the path of this trend to use machines that work faster, are more
accurate, and never get tired is one that history shows to be doomed. Our
job in the here and now is not to fight for the preservation of those jobs
but to figure out how to fulfill the massive unmet needs that exist in our
world and simultaneously to figure out how much we value them and how much
we are willing to pay for them. Figuring out how to bring the dignity that
comes with work to each person who is capable of it is worthy of our
greatest thinkers, and may be, with the advent of self-driving vehicles, we
will provide them with enough time to think through some of these problems
and offer reasonable solutions.
Warmly,
Gary
From: Nfbmo [mailto:nfbmo-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Dan Flasar via
Nfbmo
Sent: Friday, December 16, 2016 10:57 PM
To: nfbmo at nfbnet.org
Cc: DanFlasar at aol.com
Subject: Re: [Nfbmo] California tells Uber to shut down 'illegal'
self-driving car ...
I certainly do understand the appeal of new technologies, but I'd put the
brakes on a national system of driverless cars. Not a surprise that Uber
is spearheading it - it's the perfect solution to their burgeonging labor
issues contesting the companies unfair labor standards - get rid of the
drivers!
Several months ago I sent out a post that advised against using Uber
or Lyft, but after spending a lot of time looking into the real condition
of local ride services, I urge all who use Uber to tip their driver -
they're being driben to bankruptcy by the companies overhiring and
capricious mileage rates. At one time, ride-share drivers could do fairly
well, but overcompetition from 'contract' drivers is driving up costs and
cutting into available riders. Give the driver a tip - you may not have
him for long.
The idea of 'smart' highways has been in tech news for years, in one
form or another, but whatever the plan, it will involve very high changes
to the roadway infrastructure, which we taxpayers will pay for but which
will benefit a few monopolies like Uber and Lyft. At least the interstate
highway system was a public utility, paid for with our taxes, but without
the
added costs of private control of the roadways. Anyone remember the days
when cell phone roaming fees were so high because some tower owners could
charge whatever they wanted - sometimes $10/minute or more!
Why not take the money and improve our mass transit system,
especially in rural areas, as so many other countries have done?
It's one thing to write computer code that might cause problems with a
database or a spreadsheet but putting your life at the mercy of
algorithms? In addition to eliminating a significant component of the
labor force
(or in plain terms, jobs), we will also find ourselves unwitting alpha- and
beta-testers for an impossibly complex new system. There is as yet no
agreed upon legal framework to identify who pays what in the event of an
accident.
The number of variables involved in driving is enormous - even
trains, which at least can only navigate limited railways, still have to
have an
engineer. Incorporating road conditions, traffic, pedestrians, weather,
visibility and other drivers is staggering.
There was a joke some years ago about technology: if cars evolved as
much as computers have in terms of cost, size format and power, we will all
be able to buy a car for $5, drive 1000 miles per hour, can fit one in our
pocket and crash twice an hour.
So you really want to ride in a vehicle run by Windows 10?
Polemics aside, much of the country has no decent transit system -
especially outside of large urban areas, which overburdens those who for
one reason or another cannot drive. But what, exactly, is the benefit of a
driverless car, really, other than to eliminate labor issues. Though your
per trip cost may be cheaper (always a good thing), we will still bear the
costs in terms of various taxes and fees, only to benefit a few very large
players.
There's a reason San Francisco stopped Uber as fast as they did.
Dan Flasar
PS: I still regret that I didn't buy a $25 ticket for a commercial
suborbital flight offered by a coupon on a bottle of Tang.
However, the placement of the homes is not consistent with the address
sequencing. So, one would have to know which house that is being looked
for by description. It is not possible for these companies to map
everything accurately, and so, I wonder how they are going to address it.
In my employment, I have gone to some very isolated areas that were
confusing to find for a human who could think through what appears to be an
illogical situation.
I believe that this will be a great accomplishment for people of all
abilities. It is very, very exciting.
Roger
Sent from my iPhone
> On Dec 16, 2016, at 7:08 AM, Gary Wunder via Nfbmo <nfbmo at nfbnet.org>
wrote:
>
> What is so interesting about self driving cars is the unresolved
> issue
about
> whether they will be self driving or be self driving with a human backup.
> Some of the companies involved in this research believe that it is
unsafe to
> rely on a human driver in the event that the computer guidance system
> has difficulty. In the meetings I have been in the companies
> promoting these vehicles say that you can't have it both ways: if a
> person is in a self driving car, he or she will not pay attention to
> the road in the same way that a normal driver would. They say that
> they are unequivocally opposed
to
> putting out systems that can do 95% of what needs to be done and
> relying
on
> human beings to fill the gap.
>
> In the case of one company I have had the pleasure to work with, they
> claimed that their vehicles had driven over 350,000 miles and that
> the
only
> accident recorded was when one of their vehicles was rear ended by
another.
>
> I think legislators and regulators need to think not only about the
> technology but the psychology behind a self driving vehicle. Not only
> do
I
> want to one day be able to go from point X to point why without
> relying
on
> someone else, but I want the safety that can be a part of a
> computerized system that is not distracted by a noise in the
> backseat, by trying to rubberneck when going by a fire, or by trying
> to text and drive. These
are
> exciting times.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Nfbmo [mailto:nfbmo-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Daniel
> Garcia
via
> Nfbmo
> Sent: Wednesday, December 14, 2016 8:41 PM
> To: NFB of Missouri Mailing List (nfbmo at nfbnet.org)
> Cc: Daniel Garcia
> Subject: [Nfbmo] California tells Uber to shut down 'illegal'
self-driving
> car service in San Francisco
>
> Source:
>
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2016/12/14/uber-expands-s
> elf-driving-car-service-to-a-second-city/?utm_term=.0e765e2b0635
>
>
> Uber expanded its self-driving car service to San Francisco on
> Wednesday, but state regulators are calling for a halt. (Courtesy of
> Uber)
>
> Not even a full day after Uber launched its self-driving service in
> San Francisco did California regulators tell the company to shut it down.
>
> The California Department of Motor Vehicles threatened legal action,
telling
> the company that it must first obtain a special permit to test
> autonomous vehicles on the state's roadways.
>
> Uber launched the service Wednesday morning and acknowledged at the
> time that it might run afoul of state regulators. The company had
> declined to obtain a permit on the grounds that its cars require
> human monitoring and thus do not meet the state's definition of an
> autonomous vehicle, a spokeswoman said early Wednesday.
>
> The DMV disagreed. It called Uber's program illegal and demanded the
company
> cease operations until it received a permit that would require the
company
> to prove that it is financially responsible, has qualified drivers,
> and
will
> report collisions and other safety information to state regulators.
>
> "These requirements serve to build public trust in the safety of the
> technology and to foster confidence in allowing autonomous vehicles
> on public streets," Brian Soublet, the department's deputy director
> and
chief
> counsel, wrote in a letter.
>
> A spokeswoman for the company did not immediately respond to a
> request
for
> comment on the letter. Uber said earlier Wednesday that it hoped
California
> would see the merits of its self-driving vehicle program, including
> the potential to improve traffic safety, and not create barriers to
innovation.
>
> "Pittsburgh, Arizona, Nevada and Florida in particular have been
> leaders
in
> this way, and by doing so have made clear that they are pro technology.
Our
> hope is that California, our home state and a leader in much of the
world's
> dynamism, will take a similar view," Anthony Levandowski, the head of
Uber's
> advanced technology group, wrote on the blog.
>
> Uber began matching a small number of riders with vehicles that rely
> on Uber's self-driving technology rather than human drivers on
> Wednesday morning. Those vehicles still had a safety driver on board
> who can take control if necessary, as well as a company engineer.
>
>
>
>
> San Francisco is the second city in the country to officially test
> Uber's service, which the company has said will be critical to the
> future of
both
> ride hailing and urban transportation. Uber first deployed
> self-driving vehicles in Pittsburgh three months ago.
>
> "With its challenging roads and often varied weather, Pittsburgh
provided a
> wide array of experiences. San Francisco comes with its own nuances
> including more bikes on the road, high traffic density and narrow lanes,"
> Levandowski wrote on the blog.
>
> The rollout in San Francisco started with just a handful of
> self-driving vehicles, and was expected to gradually scale up as more
> cars become available, a spokeswoman said. Uber has a partnership
> with Volvo to
provide
> the company's self-driving vehicles, including the newly released
> XC90, which comes equipped with a system of lasers and cameras for
guidance.
>
> Only users with a credit card tied to a San Francisco address are
eligible
> for the program. Those who are matched with a self-driving car will
receive
> an alert that allows them to learn more about the program or opt out,
> a spokeswoman said.
>
> Uber is the second Silicon Valley company to make self-driving car
> news
this
> week. Google announced Tuesday that its self-driving car project would
> be spun off into a separate company, called Waymo. The move is a sign
> that
the
> company intends to bring the technology to market, though an exact
timeline
> remains unclear.
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Nfbmo mailing list
> Nfbmo at nfbnet.org
> http://nfbnet.org/mailman/listinfo/nfbmo_nfbnet.org
> To unsubscribe, change your list options or get your account info for
Nfbmo:
>
http://nfbnet.org/mailman/options/nfbmo_nfbnet.org/gwunder%40earthlink.net
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Nfbmo mailing list
> Nfbmo at nfbnet.org
> http://nfbnet.org/mailman/listinfo/nfbmo_nfbnet.org
> To unsubscribe, change your list options or get your account info for
Nfbmo:
> http://nfbnet.org/mailman/options/nfbmo_nfbnet.org/r_crome1%40msn.com
_______________________________________________
Nfbmo mailing list
Nfbmo at nfbnet.org
http://nfbnet.org/mailman/listinfo/nfbmo_nfbnet.org
To unsubscribe, change your list options or get your account info for
Nfbmo:
http://nfbnet.org/mailman/options/nfbmo_nfbnet.org/danflasar%40aol.com
_______________________________________________
Nfbmo mailing list
Nfbmo at nfbnet.org
http://nfbnet.org/mailman/listinfo/nfbmo_nfbnet.org
To unsubscribe, change your list options or get your account info for Nfbmo:
http://nfbnet.org/mailman/options/nfbmo_nfbnet.org/gwunder%40earthlink.net
_______________________________________________
Nfbmo mailing list
Nfbmo at nfbnet.org
http://nfbnet.org/mailman/listinfo/nfbmo_nfbnet.org
To unsubscribe, change your list options or get your account info for Nfbmo:
http://nfbnet.org/mailman/options/nfbmo_nfbnet.org/dangarcia3%40hotmail.com
_______________________________________________
Nfbmo mailing list
Nfbmo at nfbnet.org
http://nfbnet.org/mailman/listinfo/nfbmo_nfbnet.org
To unsubscribe, change your list options or get your account info for Nfbmo:
http://nfbnet.org/mailman/options/nfbmo_nfbnet.org/gwunder%40earthlink.net
More information about the NFBMO
mailing list