[Quietcars] Preliminary 2007 Accident Analysis

Sun May 17 02:06:39 UTC 2009

Bob,

Thank you for the statistics as well as the analysis.  No matter what the
analysis of the data, and no matter what Toyota may provide to make their
vehicles "safe" by providing collapsible materials and by providing other
"safety features" the bottom line is that blind people will not be as safe
walking the streets if vehicles do not emit auditory cues.  Sighted people
invented electric lights so they could walk about in an otherwise dark
environment.  Society provides colored lights to indicate when it is a
particular lane of traffic's opportunity to move safely.

Until Toyota recognizes that it is just as important for pedestrian safety
for they and other manufacturers to provide sounds on otherwise silent cars
they will not be recognizing the issue we begin to address in HR734 and
S841.

The statistical sample is still quite small.  Even so, no amount of "safer
materials" built into vehicles addresses the fact that until silent and
quite cars make a noise blind and many other pedestrians won't even know
these automobiles are around.  When automobile manufacturers make a
wholesale effort to recognize the need for auditory cues then we can begin
to have a discussion of how to change the bills presently in Congress.  One
bill will not be all things for all people.  Manufacturers and other
interested parties should recognize  and support an analysis of what sound
information is needed and then we can discuss as a group how to incorporate
other safety features into the mix.

Best,

Mike Hingson

The Michael Hingson Group
     “Speaking with Vision”
                 Michael Hingson, President
                         (415) 827-4084
                   info at michaelhingson.com
                   www.michaelhingson.com

for info on the new KNFB Reader Mobile, visit:
http://knfbreader.michaelhingson.com

-----Original Message-----
From: quietcars-bounces at nfbnet.org [mailto:quietcars-bounces at nfbnet.org] On
Behalf Of Robert Wilson
Sent: Saturday, May 16, 2009 1:23 PM
To: quietcars at nfbnet.org
Subject: [Quietcars] Preliminary 2007 Accident Analysis

Hi,
I'm just sharing the latest information about the new, 2010 Prius and
analysis of the 2007 Fatality Accident Reporting System (FARS). Both relate
directly to the public debate on H.R. 734 and S. 841.
The 2010 Prius incorporates crushable, impact absorbing structures in the
bumper, hood and quarter panels to reduce injury in an impact. These
features are described in the New Car Features document
"2010-Prius-NCF-Ext-Body-Details:"
"(d) Lessening Pedestrian Injury (1) An energy absorber is provided at the
front of the front bumper reinforcement to dampen the impact to the legs in
the event of a collision with a pedestrian. (2) A longitudinal ribbed
structure is adopted for the inner hood to cushion impact. (3) The space
between the hood panel and the hood lock striker has been formed into a
crushable structure so that the hood sub-assembly can collapse easily during
a collision. (4) An impact absorbing bracket is used for the mounting
portion of the front fender panel to absorb impact energy to the head of the
pedestrian in a collision, thus dampening the impact to the head. (5) The
back of the hood and the cowl use an open section structure that collapses
easily in an impact from the top, thus reducing the impact to and head
injuries sustained by a pedestrian in an accident."
The Prius has pedestrian accidents and making vehicles safer for pedestrians
is the responsible thing every manufacturer should do to reduce deaths and
injuries. But HR 734 and S 841 do not address this practical approach, a way
of reducing the 4,700 pedestrian deaths that occur each year. It only
addresses one group of vehicles and simply declares them to be a hazard in
the absence of supporting accident data.
Recently I started an independent analysis of the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data.
The FARS web page reporting systems are difficult to use but the raw
database files can be downloaded for analysis. Dr. Christopher Hogan had
previously used the same NHTSA files to analyze the 2002-2006 FARS data and
could find no evidence of a Prius-pedestrian hazard. But the 2007 data
became available later so I decided to take another look. Now this is a
'back of the envelope" analysis using the most conservative (worst case for
Prius) and I'm finding:
~554,324,000 miles per pedestrian death for all USA vehicles (NHTSA 2007
report)~1,023,116,000 miles per pedestrian death for all USA Prius (Analysis
of 2007 FARS data)
For worst case assumptions, I used:
 - 5% of all Prius leave the USA fleet every year leaving 477,000 Prius in
2007 from the first year of sales through 2007. - 6 Prius-pedestrian
accidents in 2007, we counted all pedestrians as fatalities, 7, which is the
worst case. The actual number of pedestrian fatalities could be less.
Each Prius is about half as likely to be involved in a fatal pedestrian
accident than any ordinary USA vehicle. A more precise and detailed analysis
of the 2007 accident data may shift the precision but not the results. Prius
on USA streets in 2007, without HR 734 and S 841, means all pedestrians are
safer than with ordinary vehicles.
I found six pedestrian-Prius accidents in the 2007 data:
01/05/2007 - CA 45 mph speed limit01/24/2007 - CA 40 mph speed
limit01/26/2007 - FL 45 mph speed limit09/12/2007 - FL (*) 65 mph speed
limit10/18/2007 - TX 60 mph speed limit10/21/2007 - AZ 50 mph speed limit
* - this accident involved two pedestrians who tried to race across an
Interstate highway in the rain in front of 2006 Prius. At highway speeds,
the Prius driver could not avoid hitting them and they were thrown into the
path of other vehicles. No driver was charged because these pedestrians ran
into highway traffic. No amount of sound could have prevented this accident.
We have the Prius driver's report and news report available on the net.
The accident data maps the real world, Prius-pedestrian accident risk. If
you would like copies of the data or just the details on how to get the
data, feel free to ask. Everything is in the public domain.
Rosenblum reports that the Prius is more difficult to detect by sound alone
at speeds under 30 mph. But his worst case ratio of this single element
doesn't scale to the real-world accident numbers. If anything, the real
accident data using the harshest assumptions against the Prius suggests they
are about two times safer than ordinary USA vehicles. 
Bob Wilson625k Inc

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