[Quietcars] Belling the turning Cat

Sun Jun 12 20:05:22 UTC 2011

Thanks Bob, for your always substantial and valuable posts.  I certainly agree that financial considerations are strong motivators of hybrid vehicle buyers.
  I may not understand your main points regarding accident statistics.  I do not consider  accidents involving turning and backing maneuvers, trivial.  I have been hit by both a silent car backing out of a parking spot and by a turning vehicle at an intersection.  In both instances I'm sure I would have avoided the contact if I had heard the vehicle.  And I am sure the driver in each situation reasonably expected me to yield.  In one of these accidents and in a recent California accident in which a pedestrian was seriously injured, the offending vehicle never got into any statistics because there was no sighted eye witness to note the license plate of the departing vehicle!  Are you saying that if more states captured the identity of AFV's involved in pedestrian accidents , the resulting data would belie the belief that they are more likely (per vehicle category volume) to be involved in such accidents?

--- On Sun, 6/12/11, Robert Wilson <bwilson4web at hotmail.com> wrote:

From: Robert Wilson <bwilson4web at hotmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Quietcars] Belling the Cat: The Long Road to the Passage of the Pedestrian Safety Enhancement Act, The Braille Monitor, June 2011
To: quietcars at nfbnet.org
Date: Sunday, June 12, 2011, 2:33 AM

Hi Ken,
Just some thoughts to share:

>  2. pressing all states that do not yet collect pedestrian accident> data that identifies whether the vehicle is an AFV, to do so. 
1) Fatal Accident Report System (FARS) already collects this data for fatalities. Those who have looked at the data know why FARS data was not used to justify "Belling the Hybrid" because the fatality rate is not high enough to show a risk. As the earlier article pointed out, this was treated as something to avoid when the early meetings were held.
Quoting from the article:"I spoke with the head of a grassroots consumer protection organization that had a strong history of advocacy on safety issues. "How many people have been killed so far?" he asked bluntly. I said we didn't know, but we didn't want to wait for a body count. "You won't get anywhere until you have statistics," he told me. "You've got to have casualties before you can
 get anything done.""
Since 2003, over 4,000 pedestrians have died every year, conservatively, 32,000 dead and at least 3-4 times more injured. The vast majority killed and injured by today's ordinary vehicles that with S.841 will make hybrids just as lethal.
2) DOT HS 811 204, September 2009 - has successfully supported passage of S.841. Collecting more data risks changing the results considering it used 19 turning and 7 backing incidents to make the claims of a higher risk from hybrids. DOT HS 811 204 played a math trick and I suspect further data is less likely to support the claims made. For example, if Prius fatal accident data from just 2001-2005 were used, the Prius would have been shown more deadly than the USA fleet. But by 2007, the rate was half the USA fleet because of the larger population and sample set. DOT HS 811 204 was limited to a ten state sample set and made claims that any undergraduate, statistics student would be able to see
 the flaws. Fortunately for S.841, Congress doesn't have many undergraduate statisticians.
3) Google news is another source of Prius accident data. I've been collecting reports to identify accidents where sound might have made a difference. The FARS data does not include the circumstances and by the time the data is available, detailed reports are hard to find. It has been an education.
> Also, I am wondering what advice we should have "out there" for > those conscientious drivers who want to be environmentally responsible> and concerned about pedestrian safety, when they go car shopping. 
One of the great misconceptions has been that hybrid owners are alturistic, socially concerned and suckers for inflated use of the term "green." This was and remains the great hubris of GM, Chrysler and the European manufactures who delayed their entry into the serious, high mileage hybrid market. For example, I remember one European paper that
 claimed the Prius was just 'clever marketing'. Then there was the claim that the Hummer costs less per mile than the Prius. Such false claims about hybrids and hybrid owners have been very easy to find and most often believed by those who have another agenda. But gas at $3.50-$4.00/gallon has finally knocked some sense into some skeptics.
You might consider another model for hybrid buyers. We may just want to cut our recurring, gasoline bills. For example, my last fill-up was $35, and I do this every 3-4 weeks instead of every 1-2 weeks with my previous car. I have co-workers who spend $70 each week. 
In 2008, I read the special report on back-over accidents that led to The Cameron Gulbransen Kids and Cars Safety Act. It makes a compelling case for a backup camera. So two weeks ago, I spent just under $900 to install an after-market, rear view mirror that includes a backup camera, hands-free cell phone interface and GPS. Having had several backing
 incidents, the economies are obvious.
Sad to say, the first, forward looking, accident avoidance system turned out to be a bust. But I'm still shopping because I read every Prius accident report in Google. I am seeing a pattern of lane departure and failure to detect objects in front of the car. Not every accident can be avoided but as I collect the raw numbers, the preliminary data suggests it is close to 1/3 of all Prius accidents. Accident reports show that avoidance systems and lane following would improve the safety of my car and one successful operation would more than pay for the cost.
> Does anyone know of any research yet on what I call, "The Roulette Wheels" > technique?  A small metal object such as a nut or ball bearing, is placed loose > inside each of the vehicle's four hubcaps.  . . .
You might do the research by checking out the wheels of a Prius or Honda hybrid. The Toyota and Honda hybrids use alloy wheels
 with thick, metal spokes and air-gaps and this is how we can tell the different Prius models from photos. The 2004-09 Prius has six, web-like spokes, bar-shaped, a little over three inches wide with pizza pie piece shaped gaps in-between. The 2010-current Prius has five, wedge shaped spokes slighty at an angle that are about five inches wide at the rim and just under three inches wide at the hub with air-gaps. The wheel covers are segmented, plastic parts that fit but do not seal. Any loose objects between the wheel and wheel cover simply falls out the gaps. 
Bob Wilson

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