[nabs-l] Self-Driving Cars Will Take Over By 2040

Tue Sep 25 20:58:05 UTC 2012

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/eco-nomics/2012/09/25/self-driving-cars-will-take-over-by-2040/

Green Tech|9/25/2012 @ 11:39AM |833 views
Self-Driving Cars Will Take Over By 2040
 Mother Nature Network, Contributor Written by Jim Motavalli

The driverless car 'Made in Germany' (MIG), which from the outside
looks like a regular Volkswagen Passat with a camera on top, is being
put through its paces at Berlin's disused Tempelhof airport. (Image
credit: AFP/Getty Images via @daylife)
Even without a debate over we really want our cars to drive
themselves, autonomous vehicles keep gaining ground. There aren’t any
on the market yet, but the momentum is clearly building. Why? Because
the technology is moving fast, and both researchers and automakers see
a path to a lucrative new market. Plus, kids—mine included—don’t seem
to be all that keen on driving anyway.

The driver-free concept is simple enough, but the tech is cutting
edge. The cars talk to other cars and the surrounding terrain with
sensors, and also stay in touch with centralized command posts.
Intersections will bristle with cameras, radar and sensors to control
traffic flow and prevent collisions. Traffic lights will become a
quaint memory.

Wired opined last week that you won’t need a driver’s license by 2040.
Its evidence:

GM’s Cadillac division expects to produce mass-market partially
autonomous cars by 2015;
Audi and BMW have shown self-driving concept cars, and Audi had a TT
drive itself up Pikes Peak. BMW has an interim technology called
ConnectedDrive Connect that offers semi-autonomous driving. The
company says it could be on the road in a few years;
Google has a fleet of autonomous Toyota Priuses and other cars (see
photo below), which together have covered a million miles. With
Google’s enthusiastic lobbying, Nevada has legalized autonomous
driving, and California seems to be close to taking that step;
Volvo is has completed its SARTRE study of autonomous driving, which
concentrates on “platooning,” moving self-driven vehicles in closely
spaced “road trains” led by a single professional driver. It’s
estimated that platooning has the potential of 20 percent energy
savings. Part of SARTRE is an in-depth look at consumer attitudes.
Some studies show that 18 to 37-year-olds are the most accepting, and
some drivers are apprehensive about the idea;
ABI Research says carmakers spent more than $10 billion on “advanced
driver assistance systems” in 2011. The company said the number could
jump to $130 billion by 2016.
Further support came from IEEE, the technology trade group, which
identified autonomous cars as “the most promising form of intelligent
transportation.” The group said that self-driving vehicles would be 75
percent of the traffic stream by 2040. “Since we can use the existing
network of roadways, autonomous vehicles are advantageous for changing
how the majority of the world will travel on a daily basis,” said Dr.
Alberto Broggi, an IEEE senior member and a professor at the
University of Parma. N 2010, Dr. Broggi directed a project that saw
two driverless cars traveling solo from Parma to Shanghai, a distance
of 8,000 miles.

I talked to Dr, Azim Eskandarian, an IEEE member and director of the
Center for Intelligent Systems at George Washington University. “I
believe that the technology is here,” he told me. “The engineering and
science needed to make autonomous cars practical in regular traffic
situations is available.” He cautioned that today’s cost for sensors,
actuators, radar and the other necessary hardware is high, but coming
down. “Cost is an issue, but not a show stopper,” he said.

A bigger obstacle is social, Dr. Eskandarian said. “Autonomous driving
may not be for everyone,” he said. “Some people enjoy driving, and
don’t want to give up control. For others, the convenience of being
able to name a destination and have your car take you there will
outweigh that. Think of the advantage for some populations, including
the handicapped and impaired drivers, or the elderly who have trouble
seeing at night.” The blind or quadriplegic could be back in the
driver’s seat.

Not all the technical hurdles involve the autonomous systems, which
seem well on the road to commercialization. Dr. Eskandarian points out
that cars will need “a higher level of reliability and robustness.”
Since cars will likely travel more closely together than they do
currently, fail-safe braking is one essential to avoid a chain
collision. Also, it’s hard to see autonomy getting much traction until
sensor technology is widely installed on cars—they have to talk with
each other for it to work. In the near future, we may have autonomous
lanes to complement HOV, with cars traveling only a few part as their
“drivers” text on their smart phones.

Dr. Eskandarian said that Japan, where navigation systems are hugely
popular and automation is a big thing, is making the greatest forward
progress in adopting autonomous driving. But Japanese and German
companies often base their autonomous tech centers in the U.S. because
of the expertise here.

We already have early-stage self-driving technology in our
cars—including lane departure warnings, adaptive cruise control,
collision avoidance and more. In a few years, most cars will probably
be able to detect hazards ahead and commandeer the brake pedal.
“Active safety” is the new watchword, and Europe is taking the lead in
getting it on board cars.

The main question doesn’t seem to be whether autonomous cars will
happen but when. “I’m pretty sure all this will come,” Dr. Eskandarian
said. “It’s hard to say which country will introduce it first. I don’t
have the timetable.”

Jim Motavalli blogs for the Mother Nature Network