[Blindmath] Amplification of Seemingly basic math question involving probability

[Jared Wright]

The only way the third flip being tales would be relevant is if the 
probability of flipping a coin tales was different than flipping it 
heads. Since it is not, (one chance in two either way), the third flip 
being tales doesn't really matter. 1/8 is correct

Hope this clears things up,
Jared


On 9/30/2009 7:12 PM, Matthew_2010 wrote:
> Just thought I'd correct an error in my question below.
>
> Alright all, I'm embarrassed to ask but here goes.
>
> Yesterday one of my kids asked me to help with a math problem he 
> couldn't work out and its been driving me a little crazy, so here I 
> am. He was asked to determine the probability of flipping a coin and 
> getting heads on first flip, heads on second flip, and tails on third 
> flip. I'm thinking that because these are independent events its a 
> matter of multiplying 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2. Therefore, the answer is that 
> there is a 12.5% chance of flipping 3 times and getting this pattern 
> of flips.
>
> The part of the problem that's bugging me is the tails part. Shouldn't 
> this be a different probability since its the third flip and specified 
> as tails? In other words, if the third flip was heads it wouldn't 
> change the probability at all since they would all be equal (1/2). 
> What role does a third tails flip play in the matter? (Hmm).
>
> Matthew
>
>
>
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