[il-talk] Fwd: RBC -- the Cullerton announcement

[pattischang at gmail.com]

Subject: RBC -- the Cullerton announcement


Greetings --

Yesterday I wrote that Senate President Cullerton would be making an announcement about the problems with the FY15 budget, which should be taken as the opening arguments for revenue to avoid unacceptable cuts.  My suggestion was that you could use Cullerton's remarks to tee up press activity of your own.

Pasted in below is a summary of Cullerton's remarks from this morning's Observer email blast, with the author's commentary (which is not necessarily the position of RBC or me).  Do not focus too closely on Cullerton's specific numbers (there are competing versions of all of this), but on the broad points:  cuts are looming unless the General Assembly finds revenue to avoid them.  The issue is the legisative branch, not the executive.  One helpful note might be that, if Cullerton's numbers are right, then without revenue a 27% across the board cut looms.  That could be the premise for press materials that say, "if there is a 27% cut in XX program, YYY children will not receive services."

John

[Here is the excerpt from the Observer:]

"The key FY 2015 budget challenges as outlined by Cullerton are:

-      $1.6 Billion: Revenue drop from income tax rate decline, starting on January 1, 2015.
-      $669 Million: Increased costs for required Medicaid services
-      $214 Million: Increased pension payment
-      $373 Million: Increased AFSCME personnel contracts
-      $278 Million: Increased state revenue share with local governments

"One bright spot exists. Because the state has been repaying previous bond borrowings, its loan repayments will drop next year by $204 million.

"But the senate president warned that the FY 2015 budget's trajectory translates into a 27 percent across-the-board cut, creating collateral budgetary damage, such as:

* Chicago Public Schools alone would lose $300 million under such a scenario and have to layoff 3,600 teachers.
* State support of colleges and universities would fall by more than $500 million, resulting in 45,000 students losing access to financial aid while universities would likely have to implement double-digit tuition increases.

"Additionally, Cullerton argued that the state has already made maximum efforts to trim the state budget, noting that bi-partisan Medicaid reform legislation saved the state $2.7 billion, and that large, additional savings are not to be found in Medicaid.

"There are not $3 billion of savings remaining in Medicaid," Cullerton said.

"He also pointed out that Illinois' state employee ratio to population is the lowest in the nation.
Cullerton was saying, essentially, the legislature has already squeezed blood from a stone. The budget problem is: revenue.

"But Cullerton's message was not aimed at Republicans. The GOP will reject any effort to raise taxes. His message was aimed at Democrats - particularly freshmen House and Senate Democrats who have never cast a tough budget or tax vote - in order to educate them on the budget pain that looms if the temporary income expires.

"What is more striking about Cullerton's message on Monday was its timing.

"Previously, he had argued that the outcome of the 2014 gubernatorial campaign should decide the fate of the temporary income tax extension, and that it should not be decided during the spring 2014 legislative session.

"But Cullerton has apparently reversed course.

"While urging the GOP to present its FY 2015 budget plan at a Senate committee hearing on Wednesday, Cullerton acknowledged the future of temporary income tax increase has to be part of the policy mix.

"It's on the table like everything else," Cullerton said."
[end of excerpt]
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