[nagdu] How long is "successful"
Nicole Torcolini
ntorcolini at wavecable.com
Tue Jun 11 04:10:43 UTC 2013
I think that success needs to be measured in a couple of different
categories. For example, is a school successful if it has a lot of working
teams, but a high percentage of its dogs do not make it to be guide dogs
because of medical conditions that they have developed or could develop?
Yes and no. They are successful in their training, but not in their
breeding. For me, successful is when at least one of the following is true:
1. (Best case scenario) The dog has relatively few behavioral and health
problems and retires at a fairly old age (8, 9, 10).
2. The dog has to be retired because of an unforeseen behavioral or health
problem.
3. The dog is retired because of a relatively minor behavioral problem that,
for one reason or another, has finally come to a head, but the dog was fine
otherwise.
I do not consider it success if a dog that has a high probability of
developing a health problem is placed in the field and then has to be
retired early.
One of the key elements to success, I think, is trying to match the handler
with a dog that has a similar personality. I have known people who received
dogs that just did not fit their personality, and, JMHO, the schools made a
bad match.
-----Original Message-----
From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy Carcione
Sent: Monday, June 10, 2013 6:41 AM
To: NAGDU Mailing List,the National Association of Guide Dog Users
Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
Robert's solution is excellent! And so elegantly simple!
I don't think one can assume that, because school X puts out 500 dogs and
school Y puts out 1000, that Y is better. Y may have more experience, but X
may give students more individual attention, and thus have a higher
percentage of long-working teams.
I don't know that's true, but I'd love to see the data and compare.
I vaguely recall seeing in TSE's Annual Report how many teams were
graduated, and maybe how many were active. Am I imagining that, or might
annual reports be a place to look for data?
Tracy
> Robert,
>
> You are my hero!
>
> everything you said is absolutely spot on. Statistics aren't ever
> going to tell you the whole story, they aren't meant to, but they do a
> very good job of giving a snapshot of the situation. I'd want to know
> the stats on success rates for the same reason I check the weather
> before I head out.
> I
> want to know what I am likely to encounter and what is possible I
> might encounter. Maybe that means I change my plans and maybe that
> means I grab a jacket, but maybe it just confirms what I already
> thought.
>
> Julie
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Robert Hooper
> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 2:33 PM
> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>
> Hello All:
>
> I've had a few thoughts on this subject, and have arrived at a few
> different possibilities.
> The first is to ask why such a statistic exists--ultimately, one would
> answer, to measure the success of the guide dog program in general.
> Therefore, to measure general success, I would suggest looking at (1)
> how many active teams a program has and (2) how many teams a program
> turns out a year. This takes the question of success on a personal
> level and makes it irrelevant. For example, if guide dog school x has
> 500 active teams and guide dog school y has 1000 active teams, then
> there are some hypotheses you can draw with these numbers. Here are a
> few:
> 1. Guide dog school y is more efficient than guide dog school x with
> regards to resource use, class size, dog placement, etc.
> 2. Guide dog school y has a better marketing strategy, as it has
> seemed to reach more prospective clients than guide dog school x.
> 3. The amount of teams put out by guide dog school y puts them further
> ahead with regards to experience (and thus, one would hope,
> competence).
>
> One can continue to make such hypotheses--which reminds me--these are
> not factual statements one can make about these schools. As anybody
> using statistics properly can tell you, statistics are tools that can
> be misappropriated and poorly used. Thus, it is important to call the
> above statements hypotheses--for example, when reviewing the schools,
> make these hypotheses, and, to the best of your ability, test them
scientifically.
>
> I have another possibility, and this one is more of a statistical one.
> If you are wanting a time-based method of success, do the following.
> Take a representative sample of data points (N) where each data point
> represents the duration of a guide dog team. This can be measured by
> taking the length of time from dog acquisition to team termination
> (due to death--of either party--retirement, etc.). If N is large
> enough, and assuming the sample comes from a statistically normal
> population, you should get a bell curve representing a normal
> distribution. This can help you figure out a lot of things. I would
> take the mean of team duration and call that "successful," just to
> have a realistic expectation of guide dog team duration. If you
> convert your sample to z-scores, then where z=-1.0 and z=1.0 is where
> you will find approximately 2/3 of the population.
> If one must have a time-based method of determining success, then I
> believe that this would be a more accurate means of obtaining such,
> rather than just assigning an arbitrary number of years. Of course,
> this is purely a measure of how frequently schools put out
> long-lasting partnerships. Whether that constitutes personal success
> is a different issue entirely. I think that the word success, as
> originally defined in this thread, is too broad and encompasses too
> many factors. Instead, get more specific--for example, call it
> "successfully long-lasting partnerships." If that's what you want to
> measure, then nobody can argue that those statistics don't measure
> that variable. The problem arises when the variable is too
> generalized--a word like "success" is sort of a scientific catch all.
> I enjoy this discussion, and feel free to inquire about my various
> points--I'm writing this on break, so this message was a bit hurried.
> Sincerely,
> Robert Hooper, Undergraduate Research Assistant, HDFS Early Childhood
> Development Lab Hooper.90 at buckeyemail.osu.edu The Ohio State
> University, Department of Psychology; Department of Neuroscience 166H
> Campbell Hall
> 1787 Neil Avenue
> Columbus, Ohio 43210
> Cell: (740) 856-8195
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy
> Carcione
> Sent: Friday, June 7, 2013 3:09 PM
> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>
> I'm not comparing it to hospital stays; I was just trying to give an
> example of helpful statistics. Rebecca's example of divorce
> statistics is a better comparison. Nor would I expect it to be the
> whole picture, more another piece of data to use. For instance, when
> I was choosing a place to get trained in computer programming, my
> first question was "What percentage of your graduates got work in the
> field after completing training?" That's another kind of success
> statistic.
> I feel that stats on bad matches or unhealthy dogs would be helpful to
> both school and prospective student.
> Anyway, I'm sure I've used up my 5 list messages, so I'm off.
> Tracy
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Margo and Arrow" <margo.downey at verizon.net>
> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 2:15 PM
> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>
>
>> Tracy, I don't know if we can statistically do this. I'm sure there
>> are ways to do it but I do not believe statistics show the entire
>> opicture and I also think comparing this to hospital stays is like
>> comparing apples and oranges.
>>
>> Margoa nd Arrow
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy
>> Carcione
>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 1:19 PM
>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>
>> I think we're mixing up personal success with statistical success.
>> I'd agree that, on a personal level, getting your dog to do what you
>> want with a minimum of effort, and being safe together, constitutes
>> success. But how do you measure that, if you want broad statistics?
>> The only way I can think of is to see how long the team stays
>> together. There will be outliers--people who retired a dog young
>> because of an attack, for instance, but it's the only way I can
>> figure to measure what I want to measure. If someone has a better
>> idea, I'd love to hear it.
>> Now, maybe you don't care. You're happy with your dog and your
>> school, and that's all that counts. I can dig that. But I'd also
>> like some level of assurance that, when I go to class, I have the
>> best chance of getting a dog I can work with for a long time. Right
>> now, all a person can do is talk to other people from their school of
>> choice and see how they've done. I just wonder if there isn't some
>> more objective measure that could be added into the mix, to give the
>> prospective student another way to compare schools, and to show
>> schools if their training is working as well as they would like.
>> After all, the hospital I work for analyzes data on bad outcomes, so
>> we can do better.
>> Tracy
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Larry D. Keeler" <lkeeler at comcast.net>
>> To: "NAGDU Mailing List,the National Association of Guide Dog Users"
>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 12:42 PM
>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>
>>
>>> Well, the point is that in my neighborhood, I know where those small
>>> curbs are at. She does stop at the big ones and whenever there are
>>> obstacles in the way. But, for me, the little ones where I live are
>>> not that important so I don't get on Holly to do them. I could have
>>> but its really not that important. Some folks might not consider
>>> that successful but, i don't really mind. I do care if obstacles
>>> are there and if she didn't stop for them! Some folks will tolerate
>>> there dogs eating things they shouldn't or sniffing other folks for
>>> example. What I consider successful is that if I want Holly to do
>>> something, I can get
>> her to do it with a minimum of fuss.
>>> If I want her to stop at those little curbs, she will! And, if we
>>> are somewhere that I don't know, she will anyway. I guess success
>>> for me is knowing what your dog will do when you do something and
>>> what your dog knows you will do! And, if your dog listens to your
>>> commands and you listen to the dog.
>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>> From: "Star Gazer" <pickrellrebecca at gmail.com>
>>> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List,the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
>>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 11:25 AM
>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>
>>>
>>>> Larry,
>>>> Your post about your dog not stopping at curbs as a good example of
>>>> how difficult this is to deal with.
>>>> Reading your post, I was thinking "I couldn't deal with that
>>>> behavior".
>>>> Y
>>>> Ou feel differently. You love your dog. You and she have a history.
>>>> I don't know your dog, and have no history with her.
>>>> I'm wondering if the statistics used on marriage and divorce rates
>>>> would serve as a good model?
>>>> We all know people who have been married for 60 years and are
>>>> miserable.
>>>> Yet, for all kinds of reasons they stay married.
>>>> Likewise, we all know marriages that ended quickly for any number
>>>> of reasons.
>>>> And as with dogs, we all have a friend where we think "How does she
>>>> put up with *that*".
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Larry D.
>>>> Keeler
>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 11:19 AM
>>>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>
>>>> Aggreed! My point is that too many variables exist to have a
>>>> perfect team.
>>>> You have to use some kind of continuum scale to measure. And, what
>>>> success if for one is not the same as it is for another. If you use
>>>> saftey as you're standard most folks I know at least have that
>>>> covered.
>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>> From: "Margo and Arrow" <margo.downey at verizon.net>
>>>> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog
>>>> Users'"
>>>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 10:53 AM
>>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Well, I'd say that even if a team works for one month and does
>>>>> well, they're successful. I say this because after one gets home,
>>>>> things could happen.
>>>>> Dogs get sick, humans get sick, dogs die, humans die,
>>>>> circumstances change, etc., etc., etc.
>>>>>
>>>>> I just don't think we can put too much of a figure on it. I
>>>>> figure, though, one can begin to tell how successful a team is
>>>>> after they get home and work a bit. One can also tell during
>>>>> class if a team might be successful or not.
>>>>>
>>>>> Margoa nd Arrow
>>>>>
>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy
>>>>> Carcione
>>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 8:04 AM
>>>>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog
>>>>> Users
>>>>> Subject: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>>
>>>>> Darla asked how long a team has to be out to be "successful". I'd
>>>>> say at least 2 years, just to put a number on it. Or possibly 3;
>>>>> I could argue either way.
>>>>> I'd be real curious to see numbers from schools of teams
>>>>> graduated, and partnerships that lasted 3 years or more. I think
>>>>> that should be a pretty good indicator as to how well the school
>>>>> is doing. I mean, if school X put out 500 teams, and 300 of them
>>>>> stayed together, that's only a 60% success rate, and not so good.
>>>>> But if 400 of them worked
>>>>> 3
>>>>> years or more, that's 80% success, which is pretty good.
>>>>> Tracy
>>>>>
>>>>>
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>>>>
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