[nagdu] How long is "successful"

Sat Jun 8 03:42:34 UTC 2013

We are going to be asking for some of that data in the consumer 
satisfaction survey, which we plan to have rolled out by Convention.

So when the time comes to analyze the data, I know which volunteers to 
peg if I get stuck. /grin/

Tami

On 06/07/2013 07:31 PM, Julie J. wrote:
> Robert,
>
> You are my hero!
>
> everything you said is absolutely spot on.  Statistics aren't ever going
> to tell you the whole story, they aren't meant to, but they do a very
> good job of giving a snapshot of the situation.  I'd want to know the
> stats on success rates for the same reason I check the weather before I
> head out.  I want to know what I am likely to encounter and  what is
> possible I might encounter. Maybe that means I change my plans and maybe
> that means I grab a jacket, but maybe it just confirms what I already
> thought.
>
> Julie
>
>
> -----Original Message----- From: Robert Hooper
> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 2:33 PM
> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>
> Hello All:
>
> I've had a few thoughts on this subject, and have arrived at a few
> different possibilities.
> The first is to ask why such a statistic exists--ultimately, one would
> answer, to measure the success of the guide dog program in general.
> Therefore, to measure general success, I would suggest looking at (1)
> how many active teams a program has and (2) how many teams a program
> turns out a year. This takes the question of success on a personal level
> and makes it irrelevant. For example, if guide dog school x has 500
> active teams and guide dog school y has 1000 active teams, then there
> are some hypotheses you can draw with these numbers. Here are a few:
> 1. Guide dog school y is more efficient than guide dog school x with
> regards to resource use, class size, dog placement, etc.
> 2. Guide dog school y has a better marketing strategy, as it has seemed
> to reach more prospective clients than guide dog school x.
> 3. The amount of teams put out by guide dog school y puts them further
> ahead with regards to experience (and thus, one would hope, competence).
>
> One can continue to make such hypotheses--which reminds me--these are
> not factual statements one can make about these schools. As anybody
> using statistics properly can tell you, statistics are tools that can be
> misappropriated and poorly used. Thus, it is important to call the above
> statements hypotheses--for example, when reviewing the schools, make
> these hypotheses, and, to the best of your ability, test them
> scientifically.
>
> I have another possibility, and this one is more of a statistical one.
> If you are wanting a time-based method of success, do the following.
> Take a representative sample of data points (N) where each data point
> represents the duration of a guide dog team. This can be measured by
> taking the length of time from dog acquisition to team termination (due
> to death--of either party--retirement, etc.). If N is large enough, and
> assuming the sample comes from a statistically normal population, you
> should get a bell curve representing a normal distribution. This can
> help you figure out a lot of things. I would take the mean of team
> duration and call that "successful," just to have a realistic
> expectation of guide dog team duration. If you convert your sample to
> z-scores, then where z=-1.0 and z=1.0 is where you will find
> approximately 2/3 of the population.
> If one must have a time-based method of determining success, then I
> believe that this would be a more accurate means of obtaining such,
> rather than just assigning an arbitrary number of years. Of course, this
> is purely a measure of how frequently schools put out long-lasting
> partnerships. Whether that constitutes personal success is a different
> issue entirely. I think that the word success, as originally defined in
> this thread, is too broad and encompasses too many factors. Instead, get
> more specific--for example, call it "successfully long-lasting
> partnerships." If that's what you want to measure, then nobody can argue
> that those statistics don't measure that variable. The problem arises
> when the variable is too generalized--a word like "success" is sort of a
> scientific catch all. I enjoy this discussion, and feel free to inquire
> about my various points--I'm writing this on break, so this message was
> a bit hurried.
> Sincerely,
> Robert Hooper, Undergraduate Research Assistant, HDFS Early Childhood
> Development Lab
> Hooper.90 at buckeyemail.osu.edu
> The Ohio State University, Department of Psychology; Department of
> Neuroscience
> 166H Campbell Hall
> 1787 Neil Avenue
> Columbus, Ohio 43210
> Cell: (740) 856-8195
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy Carcione
> Sent: Friday, June 7, 2013 3:09 PM
> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>
> I'm not comparing it to hospital stays; I was just trying to give an
> example of helpful statistics.  Rebecca's example of divorce statistics
> is a better comparison.  Nor would I expect it to be the whole picture,
> more another piece of data to use.  For instance, when I was choosing a
> place to get trained in computer programming, my first question was
> "What percentage of your graduates got work in the field after
> completing training?"  That's another kind of success statistic.
> I feel that stats on bad matches or unhealthy dogs would be helpful to
> both school and prospective student.
> Anyway, I'm sure I've used up my 5 list messages, so I'm off.
> Tracy
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Margo and Arrow" <margo.downey at verizon.net>
> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 2:15 PM
> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>
>
>> Tracy, I don't know if we can statistically do this.  I'm sure there are
>> ways to do it but I do not believe statistics show the entire opicture
>> and
>> I
>> also think comparing this to hospital stays is like comparing apples and
>> oranges.
>>
>> Margoa nd Arrow
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy Carcione
>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 1:19 PM
>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>
>> I think we're mixing up personal success with statistical success.  I'd
>> agree that, on a personal level, getting your dog to do what you want
>> with
>> a
>> minimum of effort, and being safe together, constitutes success.  But how
>> do
>> you measure that, if you want broad statistics?  The only way I can think
>> of
>> is to see how long the team stays together.  There will be
>> outliers--people
>> who retired a dog young because of an attack, for instance, but it's the
>> only way I can figure to measure what I want to measure. If someone has a
>> better idea, I'd love to hear it.
>> Now, maybe you don't care.  You're happy with your dog and your school,
>> and
>> that's all that counts.  I can dig that.  But I'd also like some level of
>> assurance that, when I go to class, I have the best chance of getting a
>> dog
>> I can work with for a long time.  Right now, all a person can do is talk
>> to
>> other people from their school of choice and see how they've done.  I
>> just
>> wonder if there isn't some more objective measure that could be added
>> into
>> the mix, to give the prospective student another way to compare schools,
>> and
>> to show schools if their training is working as well as they would like.
>> After all, the hospital I work for analyzes data on bad outcomes, so we
>> can
>> do better.
>> Tracy
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Larry D. Keeler" <lkeeler at comcast.net>
>> To: "NAGDU Mailing List,the National Association of Guide Dog Users"
>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 12:42 PM
>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>
>>
>>> Well, the point is that in my neighborhood, I know where those small
>>> curbs are at. She does stop at the big ones and whenever there are
>>> obstacles in the way. But, for me, the little ones where I live are
>>> not that important so I don't get on Holly to do them. I could have
>>> but its really not that important. Some folks might not consider that
>>> successful but, i don't really mind. I do  care if obstacles are there
>>> and if she didn't stop for them! Some folks will tolerate there dogs
>>> eating things they shouldn't or sniffing other folks for example. What
>>> I consider successful is that if I want Holly to do something, I can get
>> her to do it with a minimum of fuss.
>>> If I want her to stop at those little curbs, she will! And, if we are
>>> somewhere that I don't know, she will anyway. I guess success for me
>>> is knowing what your dog will do when you do something and what your
>>> dog knows you will do! And, if your dog listens to your commands and
>>> you listen to the dog.
>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>> From: "Star Gazer" <pickrellrebecca at gmail.com>
>>> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List,the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
>>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 11:25 AM
>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>
>>>
>>>> Larry,
>>>> Your post about your dog not stopping at curbs as a good example of how
>>>> difficult this is to deal with.
>>>> Reading your post, I was thinking "I couldn't deal with that behavior".
>>>> Y
>>>> Ou feel differently. You love your dog. You and she have a history. I
>>>> don't
>>>> know your dog, and have no history with her.
>>>> I'm wondering if the statistics used on marriage and divorce rates
>>>> would
>>>> serve as a good model?
>>>> We all know people who have been married for 60 years and are
>>>> miserable.
>>>> Yet, for all kinds of reasons they stay married.
>>>> Likewise, we all know marriages that ended quickly for any number of
>>>> reasons.
>>>> And as with dogs, we all have a friend where we think "How does she put
>>>> up
>>>> with *that*".
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Larry D.
>>>> Keeler
>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 11:19 AM
>>>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>
>>>> Aggreed! My point is that too many variables exist to have a perfect
>>>> team.
>>>> You have to use some kind of continuum scale to measure. And, what
>>>> success
>>>> if for one is not the same as it is for another. If you use saftey as
>>>> you're
>>>> standard most folks I know at least have that covered.
>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>> From: "Margo and Arrow" <margo.downey at verizon.net>
>>>> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
>>>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 10:53 AM
>>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Well, I'd say that even if a team works for one month and does well,
>>>>> they're successful.  I say this because after one gets home, things
>>>>> could happen.
>>>>> Dogs get sick, humans get sick, dogs die, humans die, circumstances
>>>>> change, etc., etc., etc.
>>>>>
>>>>> I just don't think we can put too much of a figure on it.  I figure,
>>>>> though, one can begin to tell how successful a team is after they get
>>>>> home and work a bit.  One can also tell during class if a team might
>>>>> be successful or not.
>>>>>
>>>>> Margoa nd Arrow
>>>>>
>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy
>>>>> Carcione
>>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 8:04 AM
>>>>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>>>>> Subject: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>>
>>>>> Darla asked how long a team has to be out to be "successful".  I'd say
>>>>> at least 2 years, just to put a number on it.  Or possibly 3; I could
>>>>> argue either way.
>>>>> I'd be real curious to see numbers from schools of teams graduated,
>>>>> and partnerships that lasted 3 years or more. I think that should be a
>>>>> pretty good indicator as to how well the school is doing. I mean, if
>>>>> school X put out 500 teams, and 300 of them stayed together, that's
>>>>> only a 60% success rate, and not so good.  But if 400 of them worked 3
>>>>> years or more, that's 80% success, which is pretty good.
>>>>> Tracy
>>>>>
>>>>>
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>>>>
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