[nagdu] How long is "successful"

[Julie Martin]

On Jun 7, 2013, at 11:42 PM, Tami Jarvis wrote:

> We are going to be asking for some of that data in the consumer satisfaction survey, which we plan to have rolled out by Convention.
> 
> So when the time comes to analyze the data, I know which volunteers to peg if I get stuck. /grin/
> 
> Tami
> 
> On 06/07/2013 07:31 PM, Julie J. wrote:
>> Robert,
>> 
>> You are my hero!
>> 
>> everything you said is absolutely spot on.  Statistics aren't ever going
>> to tell you the whole story, they aren't meant to, but they do a very
>> good job of giving a snapshot of the situation.  I'd want to know the
>> stats on success rates for the same reason I check the weather before I
>> head out.  I want to know what I am likely to encounter and  what is
>> possible I might encounter. Maybe that means I change my plans and maybe
>> that means I grab a jacket, but maybe it just confirms what I already
>> thought.
>> 
>> Julie
>> 
>> 
>> -----Original Message----- From: Robert Hooper
>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 2:33 PM
>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>> 
>> Hello All:
>> 
>> I've had a few thoughts on this subject, and have arrived at a few
>> different possibilities.
>> The first is to ask why such a statistic exists--ultimately, one would
>> answer, to measure the success of the guide dog program in general.
>> Therefore, to measure general success, I would suggest looking at (1)
>> how many active teams a program has and (2) how many teams a program
>> turns out a year. This takes the question of success on a personal level
>> and makes it irrelevant. For example, if guide dog school x has 500
>> active teams and guide dog school y has 1000 active teams, then there
>> are some hypotheses you can draw with these numbers. Here are a few:
>> 1. Guide dog school y is more efficient than guide dog school x with
>> regards to resource use, class size, dog placement, etc.
>> 2. Guide dog school y has a better marketing strategy, as it has seemed
>> to reach more prospective clients than guide dog school x.
>> 3. The amount of teams put out by guide dog school y puts them further
>> ahead with regards to experience (and thus, one would hope, competence).
>> 
>> One can continue to make such hypotheses--which reminds me--these are
>> not factual statements one can make about these schools. As anybody
>> using statistics properly can tell you, statistics are tools that can be
>> misappropriated and poorly used. Thus, it is important to call the above
>> statements hypotheses--for example, when reviewing the schools, make
>> these hypotheses, and, to the best of your ability, test them
>> scientifically.
>> 
>> I have another possibility, and this one is more of a statistical one.
>> If you are wanting a time-based method of success, do the following.
>> Take a representative sample of data points (N) where each data point
>> represents the duration of a guide dog team. This can be measured by
>> taking the length of time from dog acquisition to team termination (due
>> to death--of either party--retirement, etc.). If N is large enough, and
>> assuming the sample comes from a statistically normal population, you
>> should get a bell curve representing a normal distribution. This can
>> help you figure out a lot of things. I would take the mean of team
>> duration and call that "successful," just to have a realistic
>> expectation of guide dog team duration. If you convert your sample to
>> z-scores, then where z=-1.0 and z=1.0 is where you will find
>> approximately 2/3 of the population.
>> If one must have a time-based method of determining success, then I
>> believe that this would be a more accurate means of obtaining such,
>> rather than just assigning an arbitrary number of years. Of course, this
>> is purely a measure of how frequently schools put out long-lasting
>> partnerships. Whether that constitutes personal success is a different
>> issue entirely. I think that the word success, as originally defined in
>> this thread, is too broad and encompasses too many factors. Instead, get
>> more specific--for example, call it "successfully long-lasting
>> partnerships." If that's what you want to measure, then nobody can argue
>> that those statistics don't measure that variable. The problem arises
>> when the variable is too generalized--a word like "success" is sort of a
>> scientific catch all. I enjoy this discussion, and feel free to inquire
>> about my various points--I'm writing this on break, so this message was
>> a bit hurried.
>> Sincerely,
>> Robert Hooper, Undergraduate Research Assistant, HDFS Early Childhood
>> Development Lab
>> Hooper.90 at buckeyemail.osu.edu
>> The Ohio State University, Department of Psychology; Department of
>> Neuroscience
>> 166H Campbell Hall
>> 1787 Neil Avenue
>> Columbus, Ohio 43210
>> Cell: (740) 856-8195
>> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy Carcione
>> Sent: Friday, June 7, 2013 3:09 PM
>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>> 
>> I'm not comparing it to hospital stays; I was just trying to give an
>> example of helpful statistics.  Rebecca's example of divorce statistics
>> is a better comparison.  Nor would I expect it to be the whole picture,
>> more another piece of data to use.  For instance, when I was choosing a
>> place to get trained in computer programming, my first question was
>> "What percentage of your graduates got work in the field after
>> completing training?"  That's another kind of success statistic.
>> I feel that stats on bad matches or unhealthy dogs would be helpful to
>> both school and prospective student.
>> Anyway, I'm sure I've used up my 5 list messages, so I'm off.
>> Tracy
>> 
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Margo and Arrow" <margo.downey at verizon.net>
>> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 2:15 PM
>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>> 
>> 
>>> Tracy, I don't know if we can statistically do this.  I'm sure there are
>>> ways to do it but I do not believe statistics show the entire opicture
>>> and
>>> I
>>> also think comparing this to hospital stays is like comparing apples and
>>> oranges.
>>> 
>>> Margoa nd Arrow
>>> 
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy Carcione
>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 1:19 PM
>>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>> 
>>> I think we're mixing up personal success with statistical success.  I'd
>>> agree that, on a personal level, getting your dog to do what you want
>>> with
>>> a
>>> minimum of effort, and being safe together, constitutes success.  But how
>>> do
>>> you measure that, if you want broad statistics?  The only way I can think
>>> of
>>> is to see how long the team stays together.  There will be
>>> outliers--people
>>> who retired a dog young because of an attack, for instance, but it's the
>>> only way I can figure to measure what I want to measure. If someone has a
>>> better idea, I'd love to hear it.
>>> Now, maybe you don't care.  You're happy with your dog and your school,
>>> and
>>> that's all that counts.  I can dig that.  But I'd also like some level of
>>> assurance that, when I go to class, I have the best chance of getting a
>>> dog
>>> I can work with for a long time.  Right now, all a person can do is talk
>>> to
>>> other people from their school of choice and see how they've done.  I
>>> just
>>> wonder if there isn't some more objective measure that could be added
>>> into
>>> the mix, to give the prospective student another way to compare schools,
>>> and
>>> to show schools if their training is working as well as they would like.
>>> After all, the hospital I work for analyzes data on bad outcomes, so we
>>> can
>>> do better.
>>> Tracy
>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>> From: "Larry D. Keeler" <lkeeler at comcast.net>
>>> To: "NAGDU Mailing List,the National Association of Guide Dog Users"
>>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 12:42 PM
>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>> 
>>> 
>>>> Well, the point is that in my neighborhood, I know where those small
>>>> curbs are at. She does stop at the big ones and whenever there are
>>>> obstacles in the way. But, for me, the little ones where I live are
>>>> not that important so I don't get on Holly to do them. I could have
>>>> but its really not that important. Some folks might not consider that
>>>> successful but, i don't really mind. I do  care if obstacles are there
>>>> and if she didn't stop for them! Some folks will tolerate there dogs
>>>> eating things they shouldn't or sniffing other folks for example. What
>>>> I consider successful is that if I want Holly to do something, I can get
>>> her to do it with a minimum of fuss.
>>>> If I want her to stop at those little curbs, she will! And, if we are
>>>> somewhere that I don't know, she will anyway. I guess success for me
>>>> is knowing what your dog will do when you do something and what your
>>>> dog knows you will do! And, if your dog listens to your commands and
>>>> you listen to the dog.
>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>> From: "Star Gazer" <pickrellrebecca at gmail.com>
>>>> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List,the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
>>>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 11:25 AM
>>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>>> Larry,
>>>>> Your post about your dog not stopping at curbs as a good example of how
>>>>> difficult this is to deal with.
>>>>> Reading your post, I was thinking "I couldn't deal with that behavior".
>>>>> Y
>>>>> Ou feel differently. You love your dog. You and she have a history. I
>>>>> don't
>>>>> know your dog, and have no history with her.
>>>>> I'm wondering if the statistics used on marriage and divorce rates
>>>>> would
>>>>> serve as a good model?
>>>>> We all know people who have been married for 60 years and are
>>>>> miserable.
>>>>> Yet, for all kinds of reasons they stay married.
>>>>> Likewise, we all know marriages that ended quickly for any number of
>>>>> reasons.
>>>>> And as with dogs, we all have a friend where we think "How does she put
>>>>> up
>>>>> with *that*".
>>>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Larry D.
>>>>> Keeler
>>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 11:19 AM
>>>>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>>>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>> 
>>>>> Aggreed! My point is that too many variables exist to have a perfect
>>>>> team.
>>>>> You have to use some kind of continuum scale to measure. And, what
>>>>> success
>>>>> if for one is not the same as it is for another. If you use saftey as
>>>>> you're
>>>>> standard most folks I know at least have that covered.
>>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>>> From: "Margo and Arrow" <margo.downey at verizon.net>
>>>>> To: "'NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users'"
>>>>> <nagdu at nfbnet.org>
>>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 10:53 AM
>>>>> Subject: Re: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>>>> Well, I'd say that even if a team works for one month and does well,
>>>>>> they're successful.  I say this because after one gets home, things
>>>>>> could happen.
>>>>>> Dogs get sick, humans get sick, dogs die, humans die, circumstances
>>>>>> change, etc., etc., etc.
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> I just don't think we can put too much of a figure on it.  I figure,
>>>>>> though, one can begin to tell how successful a team is after they get
>>>>>> home and work a bit.  One can also tell during class if a team might
>>>>>> be successful or not.
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Margoa nd Arrow
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>>> From: nagdu [mailto:nagdu-bounces at nfbnet.org] On Behalf Of Tracy
>>>>>> Carcione
>>>>>> Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 8:04 AM
>>>>>> To: NAGDU Mailing List, the National Association of Guide Dog Users
>>>>>> Subject: [nagdu] How long is "successful"
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Darla asked how long a team has to be out to be "successful".  I'd say
>>>>>> at least 2 years, just to put a number on it.  Or possibly 3; I could
>>>>>> argue either way.
>>>>>> I'd be real curious to see numbers from schools of teams graduated,
>>>>>> and partnerships that lasted 3 years or more. I think that should be a
>>>>>> pretty good indicator as to how well the school is doing. I mean, if
>>>>>> school X put out 500 teams, and 300 of them stayed together, that's
>>>>>> only a 60% success rate, and not so good.  But if 400 of them worked 3
>>>>>> years or more, that's 80% success, which is pretty good.
>>>>>> Tracy
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> 
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